Bullpen Issues

What is wrong with the Tigers Bullpen? That is the question through ten games in this 2013 season. Coming into the season, the bullpen was the big question mark, however, for a different reason. The closer role.

The first person that one could point to in the bullpen is Brayan Villareal. During his outings, his stuff looks good like its always been, but his command has totally deserted him in the early going. He has attributed this to a mechanical flaw that he is trying to get worked out. After giving up a walk off home run to Jason Donaldson last night it looks like the best place for him to try and get his mechanics straightened out is in Toledo.

The bullpen struggles aren't a total shock as without a closer, its hard to have defined roles for your bullpen guys because each new lineup presents a different for Jim Leyland to try and patch together a plan to protect a lead. When it comes to guys with control issues like Villareal, I think its important for them to have a set role. It sounds ridiculous as they are professionals, but many bullpen guys don't do well if they don't have a set role.  They become comfortable in a specific type of situation, and when they are bouncing around from inning to inning or role to role, they struggle to focus and command eludes them.  It's cliche, but bullpen guys are a different breed. Villareal is an example of this and maybe the pressure of figuring it out at the major league level isn't the best for him and its time to option him to Triple A.

The other part of that to consider is if anyone at Toledo currently could help the club's bullpen woes. Sample size noted, Bruce Rondon has been solid in his 4 appearances with the Mud Hens this year allowing 3 runners in 4 innings of work while striking out three. If he can consistently display command in Toledo, he will be called up to the big leagues in short order. Another guy who has been lights out at Toledo early on is Luke Putkonen. He hasn't allowed an earned run in seven innings of work. He was a contender for the long relief role in spring training, and would be one of the first call-ups in the case of injury.

I know that the season is very young, but if Villareal is a mess mechanically, it might be time to send him down for a couple weeks to straighten it out and shake up the bullpen for the Tigers a little bit. It's possible they can catch a spark from a new guy for a little bit which could help stabilize a 'Pen quickly taking on water.

Game 7 Recap

Tigers 7, Blue Jays 3
W: Anibal Sanchez (1-0, 1.50 ERA)     L: Brandon Morrow (0-1, 5.59 ERA)

Summary:

As I had hoped, the Tigers bats were alive and well, collecting 15 base hits while earning them a 7-3 win over the Blue Jays. Miguel Cabrera went four for five with a 2-out 3-run home run in the 4th off Morrow and the Tigers did not stop there.  Prince Fielder reached base four times, with a run scoring double and Torii Hunter collected three hits en route to his 2,000th base hit as professional baseball player.  Alex Avila also added a solo home run to the stat sheet.

Sanchez continued his success from his first start by working seven strong innings, allowing just two earned runs on five hits while striking out eight.  His pitch count was elevated at 114 pitches, but he was dominant throughout.  Don Kelly helped him out by robbing a J.P. Arencibia home run in the second inning.  It was a great play and its good to see Kelly show of his good defense.  Sanchez showed great command of all his pitches and he is pitching like he did in the playoffs last year.  This is a very good sign.

Thought it was a solid win, some things could have gone better.  Benoit gave up a home run to Rasmus and a double to Adam Lind in the ninth inning.  It did not alter the outcome of the game, but Benoit needs to prove he can handle end of the game situations, regardless of the the score.  Newly appointed third base coach, Tom Brookens, made his first questionable call when he sent Hunter home.  He was thrown out at the plate with no outs in the third inning.  It probably made more sense for him to keep Hunter at third since Fielder was due up next.  It did not end up costing them the game, but it is good for Brookens to make that type of decision early in the season.

The Tigers took control of the game early by scoring a run each of the first two innings and with two out scoring.  The bats are awake and I think they'll stick around for the rest of the series.

Earned Their Stripes:

• Anibal Sanchez: Although he had a lot of pitches, he pitched seven strong innings and showed great command of all his pitches, especially his change-up.
• Miguel Cabrera: Need I say more about this guy? He continues to hit and drive in runs, especially with two outs.  He became the first player with 100 home runs in Comerica Park.
• Torii Hunter / Prince Fielder: They both continue to hit in bunches, collecting three and two hits respectively.  Hunter is also the 14th active player to reach the 2,000 base hits.
• Don Kelly: He made one heck of a catch in left field and showed that he is part of the defense for this ball club.

Declawed:

• Johnny Peralta: He finished the day hit-less, leaving eight men on base and recorded the Tiger's only strikeout of the day. 
• Joaquin Benoit: Allowed two hits, including a home run and a double in one inning of work.  He needs to buckle down and focus if he plans on closing out games for the Tigers.  His best pitch, his change-up, needs to be kept down.  When it is left up, batters hit it a long ways.
• The bottom of the order (Peralta, Kelly, Infante): They only mustered one hit in thirteen at bats, leaving 15 on base throughout the game.  The Tigers loaded the bases with zero outs in the 7th inning and failed to score.  This has become a problem for Tiger hitters and going forward, they must take advantage of bases loaded situations   

Just a Notice:

Hey guys, I am graduating in three weeks, so we all know what that means. I am busy as heck. I will do my best to keep up to date with everything going on, but for the next two weeks or so there will probably not be a whole ton of content. As school ends the last week of April, I look towards having a significant amount of time to put into the blog and will be able to keep producing quality content. I beg you to bear with me through this slow period, and promise I will return with better content than was found at the start of this blog.

Thanks for your understanding!

-Travis

Game 7 Preview

Toronto Blue Jays (2-4) vs. Detroit Tigers (3-3)

Time: 1:05 EST, Comerica Park, Detroit, MI (Fox Sports Detroit, Tigers Radio Network)

Pitching Matchup: Brandon Morrow (0-0, 1.50 ERA)
vs.
Anibal Sanchez (0-0, 0.00 ERA)


Today, the Tigers look to match up against the Blue Jays. This is an interesting matchup as both teams were highly favored to bolster great offenses and both have faired inconsistently so far. The Tigers look to rebound offensively after a subpar performance against the Yankees on Sunday. The offensive managed 8 hits, all singles, and finished 0-5 with runners in scoring position, leaving 11 men on base. The Blue Jays are hitting a measly .223, but that hasn't slowed their lead off man, Jose Reyes. He comes into play hitting .435 with a home run and 2 doubles. The Tigers are hitting .282 led by Torii Hunter at .393, who is coming off three consecutive multi-hit games.

Brandon Morrow is on the bump for the Jays and is coming off a strong performance against the tribe, going 6 innings while striking out 8. Hunter is 4-13 off Morrow while Cabrera is 1-5 with a HR.

The Tigers send Sanchez to the hill, following 5 innings of shutout ball against the Twins. Since being acquired from Miami last year, Sanchez is 1-1 with 4.26 ERA vs. Toronto.

Both teams are coming off shut out losses and I expect the teams to come out swinging. The Blue Jays have been more inconsistent and that will end up costing them this game. The Tigers bats will once again come to life.

Tigers 7 - Blue Jays 4

Lineup Notes

Victor Martinez has been scratched due to a cut on his right thumb from the bat rack. He needed 8 stitches and is listed day to day. Dirks will slide into the DH slot, giving Don Kelly the start in left. Avila is also back in the lineup after the birth of his daughter.

Jackson CF
Hunter RF
Cabrera 3B
Fielder 1B
Dirks DH
Avila C
Peralta SS
Kelly LF
Infante 2B

Game 6 Recap

New York Yankees 7, Detroit Tigers 0

WP: C.C. Sabathia (1-1, 3.00 ERA) LP: Justin Verlander (1-1, 2.19 ERA)

Summary:

     There was not a whole lot of good going on in this game and for the 5th time in 6 games, my prediction was wrong.  C.C. Sabathia was brilliant from the start, although wild. His wildness was effective as the Tigers couldn't pick up on any pattern that Sabathia was using this afternoon. Justin Verlander got hit hard early before settling in and completing seven and a third strong innings. The three early runs he gave up, especially the two on a home run from Jayson Nix, did the Tigers in as they couldn't muster anything off of Sabathia. 

     The lone bright spot for the Tigers was Matt Tuiasosopo who collected two hits in three at bats and walked once. Outside of him, no one was really in form as the Tigers only mustered 8 singles and no extra base hits on the day. 

     The bullpen was also not very sound today as Phil Coke continued his poor start to the season allowing 2 runs in two-thirds of an inning and Octavio Dotel surrendered two in the ninth which put the game completely out of reach. Coke didn't even look comfortable against the right handers and wasn't finishing his pitches yet again today. He will likely work in the bullpen with Jeff Jones on that during their game off tomorrow. Dotel just didn't have it today, and the game was likely out of reach when he entered anyways. There is nothing to indicate Tigers fans should worry about Dotel at all moving forward.

     Also of note was Mariano Rivera closing the game out for the Yankees. Barring a post season series versus the Yankees, this weekend was the last time Rivera would grace Detroit fans with his presence. The Tigers don't play the Yankees at home any more this year and won't see them again till August when they will look like a much different team.

Earned their Stripes:

• Justin Verlander: Although he had a rocky start, he did pitch into the eighth inning and allow the bullpen a little bit of rest heading into the off day which will help immensely against the Blue Jay juggernaut offense.
• Matt Tuiasosopo: A solid day at the plate going 2-3 with a walk, only guy who put together consistent solid at bats for the Tigers this afternoon
• Alex Avila: Because hey, why not! He had a child this morning and had no role in the blow out.

Declawed:

• Phil Coke: 1 good appearance, 2 awful ones so far from Coke. He needs to get lefties out. Today he didn't get anyone out right or left handed. 
• Octavio Dotel: Just didn't seem to have any intensity or focus. Worked from behind to every hitter in the inning. Not a good showing today from Dotel
• Miguel Cabrera: A tough 0-4 day for the big fella, and he falls into this category because of the expectations he's created for himself. His approach today at the plate wasn't terribly sound after a 4-4 day at the dish on Saturday. He needs to get more amped up to play ball.

Looking Ahead:

     The Tigers have a much needed off day tomorrow while traveling to Toronto to take on a Blue Jays team in a mid week series. Fans won't really recognize many Blue Jays from last year's squad as they have made massive lineup improvements in Toronto. This series will feature two of the better teams in the American League so look forward to good baseball to make this work week a little easier to get through.

Game 6 Preview

New York Yankees (1-4) vs. Detroit Tigers (3-2)

Time: 1:10 EST, Comerica Park, Detroit, MI (TBS/Fox Sports Detroit, Tigers Radio Network)

Pitching Matchup: C.C. Sabathia (0-1, 7.20 ERA)

                                        vs.

                               Justin Verlander (1-0, 0.00 ERA)

     It will be a match up between two of the best pitchers in baseball this afternoon at Comerica Park as the Yankees take on the Tigers looking to salvage a game in the series, avoiding a sweep. Sabathia was roughed up pretty good by the Red Sox in his opening day start earlier this week at Yankee Stadium, and maybe even more concerning for Yankees fans showed a fastball that only topped out at 91 MPH. Sabathia sat around 88-90 most of the day with the fastball, and it really limited the effectiveness of his off speed arsenal as they didn't have enough of a velocity differential. 

     Verlander was very effective in his opening day start in Minnesota, but not efficient at all. A lot of that had to do with the fact that he couldn't feel the ball as it was 30 degrees. It is imperative for him to pitch deep into this game as no starter through the first five games has made it past the sixth inning and the bullpen is pretty depleted. Look for Verlander to go deep into the game this afternoon against a roughshod Yankee lineup and be every bit you expect JV to be.

Lineup Notes:

     Matt Tuiasosopo will be getting his first Tigers start in left field today as the Yankees throw a lefty on the hill for today's game. Brayan Pena will also be getting his first appearance for the Tigers as he starts behind the dish. Don Kelly will be today's backup/emergency catcher as Alex Avila's wife gave birth to a daughter last night and won't be attending the game. (Congrats, Alex!) Also, Santiago will again get the start but today at shortstop as Peralta will have the day off and Infante returns to second base. The rumor is that Santiago is getting his weekend tryout and that if he shows nothing, the Tigers will likely release him and call up Danny Worth to fill that role. That will be something to keep an eye on today and going forward. 

Outlook:

     It's not a surprise Jim Leyland is rolling out his second tier lineup today as that appears to be his favorite thing to do on Sundays (besides smoking of course). However, with JV on the hill Tigers fans should feel pretty confident today. Tigers hitters have always had pretty good success against Sabathia and if his fastball velocity is down, look for the club to rack up a lot of hits again today. I'm pretty comfortable in predicting a Tigers win and sweep over the Yankees today. 

     Side note: GO BLUE!

A Closer Look at the Jose Valverde Signing (Pun intended)

  Breakdown:

   Earlier this week, the Tigers brought back Jose Valverde after Phil Coke blew his first save of the Year in Minnesota. The Tigers agreed with Valverde on a minor league deal in an agreement that allows the Tigers up to a month to see Papa Grande against live hitters in real game situations. If all goes well, you can expect the Tigers to sign Valverde to a major league deal that makes him their closer for the rest of the year. If it doesn't go well, the Tigers can release him, and send him on his way to try and find employment with another squad.

     On the surface, this deal makes all the sense in the world for the Tigers. Many of the national baseball writers and former executives applauded the deal as it is a no-risk deal for the Tigers as they won't have to make a significant monetary investment unless they deem Valverde good enough to close at a major league level. The timing of the deal made it seem a little bit panicky, but the low risk that the investment carries indicates it wasn't a panic move.

Why it makes sense:

     This deal makes sense simply because it is minimal to no investment, could potentially take a ton of pressure and scrutiny off of manager Jim Leyland, and the Tigers have no set, everyday closer which is a luxury to have.

     First, lets look at the Tigers' options as it stands today. The first option is playoff hero, Phil Coke. He currently is 1 for 2 on the year in save opportunities. He has the quirky attitude a closer should have, he has a bulldog mentality, and he has been in every late game situation you can be in.  The problem is that he can't get right handed hitters out. His career stats versus right handed hitters isn't real great. Righties hit .301/.371/.435. This is simply not good enough to be a closer as most managers are going to be able to create the match up they want offensively when their team is down in the 9th.

     Joaquin Benoit is another option, however he is prone to issuing walks when the situation gets tight and he has carved out a nice niche for himself in the eight inning. He is significantly better when getting outs 22,23, and 24, then when trying to get the following three. Issuing free passes in the ninth isn't ideal for a closer, especially one who doesn't possess a high strikeout rate. Another issue with Benoit as a closer is that he gives up far too many homeruns.

     Al Albuquerque and Brayan Villareal we can lump together as similar options. Both of these guys haven't pitched a whole lot in the big leagues, but have similar, devastating arsenals. The problem with both of these guys is that they haven't been terrible poised at times throughout their careers and the devastation goes both the wrong way when their lack of poise rears its head. Villareal displayed what can happen when he tightens up against Minnesota this week when he allowed six runners, five runs and only recorded two outs. Albuquerque who posesses an equally good fastball and maybe better slider also has shown a propensity to struggle when things get tight in critical situations and his command eludes him. Of these two choices Albuquerque is the better options, but Leyland seems to pick his spots with Al Al and doesn't seem inclined to make that spot late in close ball games unless he needs a strikeout. Albuquerque's 13.55 K/9 strikeout rate over his short career indicates that in a year or two he has to potential to be a dynamic closer.

     As you can see the Tigers don't have a great closer option that one could be confident in as things currently stand and taking the no risk chance on Valverde seems pretty logical, however, as I will explain the move is one that I don't care for.

Why it doesn't:

     There is one main reason which makes me question if this was the right move to make. That reason is Bruce Rondon. Rondon is the 22 year old closer of the future for the Detroit Tigers. Not making the team out of spring training might have been a blessing in disguise for the flame throwing right hander who features a fastball that can touch 103 MPH. By not making the team, he was going to have the opportunity to learn how to close a game in an atmosphere where you aren't expected to win a pennant and possibly a World Series.  Allowing him another year in Triple A to develop the ability to tackle the beast that is the ninth inning was probably the best thing for him and his long term future. Last year at this time, he opened the season in High-A Lakeland and ended it in Toledo where he got 8 innings of experience. It's an aggressive track he's on and Spring Training showed he has the potential to be lights out in the ninth, but he just needs more experience against at least fringe major league pitchers.

     This is why bringing Valverde in does not make sense. In a way, Rondon has had his psyche a little damaged as he was tabbed as the closer coming into this year while being paraded around by the Tigers during their Winter Caravan. He struggled a little bit this spring and was sent back to the minors which was by all accounts pretty deflating for the big righty. Now with Valverde coming in, it sends the message to Rondon that the Tigers don't feel like he will be ready to close games at any point this year, and that Valverde, a guy who completely imploded last year and is hated by many Tigers fans, would be more trusted to get the job done than he is.  That isn't sending the right message to the guy you need as your closer in 2014 and beyond.

     The other reason why this seems to be a poor decision to have Valverde assume the closer role in Triple-A for the next while is that it further delays the chance for Rondon to develop as a closer. These are valuable innings for Rondon to have under his belt. He needs to be in as many save chances as possible and Valverde is going to be in the way of that happening.

Conclusion:

     This move makes sense given the win now mantra the Tigers clearly have this year and next, however, I think it's the wrong move for the long term good of the organization. Rondon needs to be given every opportunity to develop into a great closer that the Tigers would love to have going forward. Valverde is not a dominant enough closer anymore and doesn't have the potential to be the closer he once was to justify having Rondon's development potentially stunted, and for this reason I don't agree with bringing Valverde on board.

    What are your thoughts on the move to bring in Valverde. I would love it for you guys to leave some opinions in the comments and discuss what you think.

Game 5 Preview

New York Yankees (1-3) vs. Detroit Tigers (2-2)

Time: 4:05 PM, Comerica Park (FOX, Tigers Radio Network)

Pitching Matchup: Phil Hughes ( 16-16, 4.23 ERA in 2012, Activated off DL 4/6)
                                       vs.
                                 Max Scherzer (16-7, 3.74 ERA in 2012)

     Big righty Phil Hughes will be on the mound for the Yankees Saturday, replacing David Phelps in the rotation. Phelps was originally slated to start today as Phil Hughes was on the Disabled List. The Yankees, however, have deemed Hughes fit to pitch and activated him on Saturday morning to make the afternoon start that originally was his when the Yankees broke camp. Hughes will likely be on a lower pitch count as he is fresh off the DL, so we will probably see Phelps as well.  Tigers hitters haven't had a whole lot of trouble with Hughes in the past, so that may be a break for the club in getting to face him. We shall see.

     Max Scherzer is the man Jim Leyland will hand entrust the ball do from the beginning on Saturday. Scherzer had a mediocre spring, but definitely was peaking towards the end. Scherzer will be featuring his mid to high 90s fastball and his wipeout slider. His third pitch is a changeup that can get him a ground ball when he needs one. Scherzer has had a lot of success against the Yankees in the past which boasted much stronger lineups, so look for that trend to continue tomorrow.

Outlook:

     It will likely take the Tigers a time through the order to get used to Phelps who will have an expanded arsenal as he is now a starter. Don't fret if the Tigers don't score in the first inning for the first time this season. The game tomorrow will be on the big network, FOX at 4:05 PM. The temperature is supposed to be in the upper 50s and maybe even reach 60, however rain may make an appearance. With the temperature increasing, we can expect the ball to fly a little more so hopefully the bats will wake up.

     This game is the kind where the Tigers tend to struggle. They haven't really had much success against pitchers they haven't seen before, and David Phelps is a new starter for this team to face. I see Max pitching defense, but the lineup may have trouble giving him support. My prediction is that the Yankees take game two tomorrow as they are needing a win in the worst way right now. It may be April, but a win is worth the same now as it is in September, so don't be surprised to see Joe Girardi's troops come out with some intensity tomorrow and an extra level of focus.

Game 4 Recap

New York Yankees 3, Detroit Tigers 8

WP: Doug Fister (1-0, 5.40 ERA)   LP: Ivan Nova (0-1, 7.71 ERA)    S: Drew Smyly (1)

Summary: 

     Again, the Tigers jumped out to an early lead scoring twice in the first couple of innings on Ivan Nova while driving his pitch count up. Austin Jackson started off the game with a lead off single for the 4th time in 4 games and after a successful hit and run from Torii Hunter, was able to come home on a RBI ground out from Miguel Cabrera. In the second, Omar Infante picked up and RBI single driving in Andy Dirks who swiped a bag to get himself in scoring position.

     After the first two innings, the Tigers' bats went silent as the Yankees stormed back to take a 3-2 lead after Kevin Youkilis went yard followed by a wild pitch from Doug Fister to take the lead. The Tigers seemed to be woken up by the Yankees rally, specifically Prince Fielder who wasted no time in reclaiming the lead with a three run blast that put the score at 5-3 in favor of the home team.

     Drew Smyly came on in relief of Doug Fister in the 6th inning after Fister continued a trend of Tigers' starters only lasting five innings and pitched brilliantly. He faced twelve batters and sat all of the down in four dominant innings striking out five in the process. While Smyly was doing his thing, Alex Avila managed to get himself going with a bomb to right in the bottom of the sixth. Fielder also decided that one was not enough and went yard on a two-run big fly in the bottom of the seventh to stake the Tigers to a 8-3 lead.

Earned their Stripes:

• Prince Fielder: Fielder went off today in a big way. 2-4 with 2 HRs and 5 RBI is the definition of earning your stripes. His three-run jack in the sixth to instantly reclaim a lead was clutch and very needed this afternoon. His second bomb all but putting away the game was icing on the cake for a great home opener for Prince.

• Drew Smyly: In his second appearance of the season Drew Smyly had a great showing earning the rare 12 out save. He was dominant through his four innings and completely shut down the Yankees. He saved the bullpen for the rest of the weekend which is very important going forward. 

• Omar Infante: Infante has been the Tigers' most consistent early this year and drove in the second run of the day. He ended up 2-4 with an RBI and one run scored. 

Declawed:

• Doug Fister: Maybe this is a little harsh here, but Doug didn't make it into the sixth inning, and definitely struggled with his command. As a result, despite getting the win, he got beat up a little bit today.

• Miguel Cabrera: Despite driving in another run today, Miggy just hasn't looked comfortable in the box yet. No worries here though as he'll end the year at the same place he normally does which is the top of the league in about every hitting category. 

Outlook:

     Giving the home fans something to cheer about will give the Tigers something to feel good about as well and they will sleep well tonight in their own beds. Tomorrow they will look to continue the momentum as they give the ball to Max Scherzer who the Yankees will counter with David Phelps. Tomorrow's start time is at 4:05 PM on FOX.

Game 4 Preview: Yankees

Detroit Tigers (1-2) vs. New York Yankees (1-2)

Time: 1:10 EST Comerica Park (Fox Sports Detroit, Tigers Radio Network)

Pitching Matchup: Ivan Nova-NYY (12-8, 5.09 ERA in 2012)

                                           vs. 

                               Doug Fister -DET ( 10-10, 3.45 ERA in 2012)

     Ivan Nova is a wildcard pitcher for the Yankees. No one really knows what to expect of him after a huge rookie year and a rough second year on the bump.  The Tigers would do well to get to him early and often to  get to the bullpen early. The Yankees had a tough series at home versus the Red Sox earlier this week, similar to that of the Tigers vs. Minnesota. Their bullpen is a little tired out right now, so the earlier the Tigers force Nova out of the game, the better their chances are to secure a much needed win. 

     Doug Fister had a little bit of a rough spring this year. He struggled a lot to find his command and "feel" for the baseball. As a guy who is certainly not a power pitcher, he relies on having his command on point. He looked better in his last spring start against the Rays at Tropicana field and will look to build off of that today.

Outlook:

     The Tigers need a win badly today. They need production from the middle of their order. That means Cabrera, Fielder, and Martinez all need to wake up and get going today. The crowd is going to be raucous and the Tigers will need to feed off of that and not disappoint an overflow crowd.  It is a holiday in Detroit to day, so look for the Tigers to make sure it's a good one for the city. 

     Brennan Boesch will make his return to Comerica in pinstripes today hitting in the 5 hole and playing right field. I always have had a spot in my fandom for Boesch and hope he does well in New York. Just not this weekend.

     The Tigers need to win this series and I think that they will start off the right way towards doing that today. They have the starting pitching advantage and they have an advantage in the lineup. As we found out in Minnesota, that doesn't by any means translate to a win, however I think it will today. There will come a day where I don't pick the Tigers to win, I promise, but today isn't it. Go Tigs!

Game 3 Recap

Detroit Tigers 2, Minnesota Twins 8

WP: Mike Pelfrey (1-0, 0.00 ERA) LP: Rick Porcello (0-1, 5.06 ERA)

Summary:

     Again, the Tigers jumped out to an early lead in for the third time in three games.  Again, the did nothing from the dish after the third inning stranding six runners in scoring position on the day. The Tigers dropped the third game of the series, and the series overall as their bats have decided to stay back in Lakeland to catch a few extra rays.  One can only hope going forward that the bats decide they want to make their debut appearance tomorrow at Comerica against the New York Yankees.

     This game was rather uneventful. Rick Porcello went 5.1 innings giving up 3 runs on 2 home runs as he had trouble keeping his sinker down. He also didn't mix pitches at all virtually going with the fastball the whole second time through the lineup. Darin Downs and Octavio Dotel effectively ushered the team into the eighth inning where Brayan Villareal proceeded to implode recording two outs and giving up 5 runs. He took the Tigers out of the game and that was all she wrote.

3 Alpha Cats:

• Austin Jackson: AJax had a good day at the plate going 2 for 3 with a double, steal and a run scored. Unfortunately he was about the only person on the squad interested in swinging the bat. He set the table, and none of the big cats wanted to eat today so he was stranded on the base paths.

• Darin Downs: Downs is not a flashy guy, but more often than not he'll get the job done. He did get the job done again today with a perfect inning featuring two strikeouts. 

• Victor Martinez: I'll give Victor the third Alpha of the game as he went 2-4. Unfortunately he chose his spots poorly as his hits came with no one in scoring position. 

3 Kittens:

• The Offense: Small sample size of three games but this team is in an absolute offensive funk. They aren't taking good at bats, working from behind in the count, and saving their worst specifically for when runners are in scoring position

• Alex Avila: Alex simply is in a bad spot right now hitting, and we saw it today with his bat slam after popping up a good pitch. He looks totally lost at the plate. I understand that he likes to take walks, but his best year, which happened to be his rookie year, he would let fly on a first pitch fastball down the middle. Somewhere along the line he lost his aggressive nature and decided to work from an 0-1 count every at bat. He needs to change his approach at the plate. Most Tiger fans and certainly Jim Leyland would sacrifice some on base percentage points for the productive pop he had in his bat his rookie year. 

• Brayan Villareal: This one is self explanatory. 2 outs, 4 hits, 2 walks, 5 earned runs. Nuff said. 

     Going forward the Tigers head home to open a weekend set with the Yankees at Comerica Park tomorrow.  The atmosphere will be great and hopefully the baseball will be as well. Doug Fister will toe the slab for the Tigers and it will be Ivan Nova getting the start for New York. 

The Return of Valverde...Maybe.

The Tigers have done the impossible and signed a closer! Well, sort off. Today, the Tigers brought back Jose Valverde on a minor league contract.

He'll pitch in the minors to see where he is at, presumably at Toledo. If he is not back in the majors by May 5, the contract allows him to opt out and become a free agent again.

What this means?

If the closer by committee becomes a regular problem, Valverde will be called upon to close for the Tigers once again. He is a three time all star and a proven closer. He had a terrible postseason last year, but I believe he can regain prime form.

Game 3 Preview: Minnesota

Detroit Tigers (1-1) at Minnesota Twins (1-1)

Time: 1:10 PM EST at Target Field (Fox Sports Detroit, Tigers Radio)

Pitching Matchup: Rick Porcello (10-12, 4.59 ERA in 2012)
                                        vs.
                                  Mike Pelfrey (0-0, 2.29 ERA in 2012)

     Mike Pelfrey will be on the bump for the Twins as the series concludes with a matinee rubber match tomorrow.  He came to Minnesota this off-season from the New York Mets, and like yesterday's starter, Kevin Correia, he has spent his whole career to date in the National League.
   
     Pelfrey spent most of 2012 on the shelf with from a season ending elbow injury early in 2012. It is hard to know what his arm has recovered too, but based off his spring he should feature a sinker in the low 90s accompanied by a splitter, slider and changeup combination. He had a banner year with the Mets in 2010 winning 15 games and an ERA in the 3.40 range.  Since then, however, he hasn't been terribly dominant so a jump to the varsity circuit (American League) could be rough for him.  That said, the first two starters the Twins have rolled out from the National League has stymied the Tiger offense.

     Tigers fans are looking for a new Porcello tomorrow. Porcello had a fantastic spring in which he walked nobody in 24 major league innings. He also has scrapped his slider for a curveball and has the fastball popping in the mid 90s with the sinker working at only a couple ticks below that.  Tigers camp officials believe that he has turned a corner this off-season and decided to keep him as the 5th man in the rotation. It's time, this season, for Porcello to reward their faith in him and prove them right. I also would like to have my earlier post on this blog be proven correct by Porcello as well.  A great first start today would do that and secure the Tigers a road series win.  After giving away today, and Sanchez only lasting five innings, it would be helpful if Porcello could work into the 7th and save the bullpen a little bit before going home to face the Yankees in the home opening series.

Outlook:

      I look for the Tigers offense to come up with a little more intensity this afternoon and put a few runs on the board. The Tigers closer by committee let them down yesterday and would very much appreciate an easy day tomorrow. The Tigers shouldn't lose a series this series to the Twins, especially after the way they gave away game two. I look for the Tigers to win the rubber game in this series and return home to a raucous opening day crowd to take on the Yankees.

     I'll take Rick Porcello as my player of the game as he goes 7 strong innings and takes a load off the bullpen. The offense hopefully wakes up a little bit and starts having quality at bats. The shadows also will be a non-factor for most, if not the whole game. The first two games the hitters have dealt with nasty shadows between the pitcher's mound and home plate. Look for a little better contact from both sides today as the shadows are a non-factor.

Game 2 Recap

Minnesota Twins 3 (1-1) -Detroit Tigers 2 (1-1)WP: Perkins (1-0, 0.00ERA) LP: Phil Coke (0-1, 9.00 ERA)

Summary:

The Tiger's second gameof the season felt very similar to the first.  The starter, Anibal Sanchezpitched five shutout innings with an elevated pitch count while allowing onlytwo hits and walking three.  He left the rest up to the bullpen with a 2-0lead.  The Tigers were able to push a couple of runs of two outs in thethird inning and fifth innings, both off Miguel Cabrera singles.

Darin Downs relievedSanchez, tossing 1 1/3 innings, striking out three of the five batters he facedand allowing just one run in the seventh when Wilkin Ramirez doubled off BrayanVillarreal to score Trevor Plouffe.  

Tigers 2 - Twins 1 - Endof 7th Inning

Benoit pitched ascoreless eighth inning, getting through the heart of the Twins order: JoeMauer, Josh Willingham, Justin Morneau, and Ryan Doumit.  

Tigers 2 - Twins 1 - Endof 8th inning

Benoit started the ninthinning and walked the first batter he faced, Trevor Plouffe.  Leylandbrought in his guy for now, Phil Coke.  Chris Parmalee flew out on onepitch for the first out.  Next up, Brian Dozier fought off a 1-2 fastballfor a single, allowing for runners on the corners.  The next batter,Eduardo Escobar, saw one pitch, a misplaced fastball and hit it to left center,where neither Andy Dirks nor Austin Jackson could get.  Both runnersscored and the Twins walked off with a big win.

Twins 3 - Tigers 2 -FINAL

3 Alpha Cats:

• Anibal Sanchez: He pitched five scoreless innings, allowing just two hits, walking three and striking out five.  He wasn't very efficient, but he was effective.  This was a very good start considering in his last Grapefruit start, he allowed nine runs.
• Downs / Villarreal / Benoit: Despite the fact the bullpen gave up one run and Benoit issued the walk in the ninth, they did a good job of shutting down the big bats in the Twins lineup and gave the Tigers a chance to win the game at the end.
• Miguel Cabrera: After going 0-5 in the first game, Cabrera went 2-4, while driving in both Tiger runs with two-outs. 

3 Kittens:

• Phil Coke: He still cannot get right handed batters out. Parmalee, a lefty he retired.  Dozier and Escobar were both right-handed.  Last year, right-handed hitters hit .396 against him (40 for 101) and right handed hitters burned him today too.  Granted it was the bottom of the Twins lineup so I do agree with Leyland's decision to close with Coke.  However, Coke left a couple of very hittable fastballs over the plate and it cost his team the win.  He'll bounce back.
• The Tigers Offense: The Tigers managed seven hits, all singles, and a measly 2 runs against a very average Twins squad.  This team should be scoring more than 2 run with the bats they have.  It's very early in the season and they will warm up in no time.  
• Closer by Committee: This approach will be second guessed each time it fails until the Tigers have a solidified closer.  Tonight for example, Coke could have pitched the eighth to face Mauer and Morneau and Benoit could have closed it out.  But, if that does not work, fans would be asking why didn't Coke close again? It is a battle no one can win.  I think the approach can work, but it will be a hard fought road. 

Tigers claim Evan Reed off Waivers

The Tigers rounded out their 40 man roster today by claiming RHP Evan Reed off waivers from the Miami Marlins. He was assigned to Triple A Toledo and will pitch out of the bullpen.

Reed was drafted in the third round by the Texas Rangers in the 2007 draft. Last year he split time between Double A and Triple A in the Marlins organization. He appeared in 50 games, compiling a 5-4 record and 4.68 ERA. He has spent six seasons in the minors and has yet to appear in the majors. In those six seasons, he has a record of 19-19 with an ERA of 4.09.

At the age of 27, Reed may be a life time minor leaguer thus far, but he'll get his chance to impress. Bullpen depth is never a bad thing to have.

A Look at the Stephen Strasburg Treatment

     This is not Tigers specific, but it certainly is a big topic in baseball these last couple of years. Steven Strasburg being shut down even while the Washington Nationals were making a pennant push last year may have been the very reason they came up short of a World Series appearance last year. The Nationals, with Strasburg coming off Tommy John Surgery, had a innings limit of 160 innings and stuck to it, shutting him down for September and the playoffs after logging 159.1 innings in 2012.

     I will come out and say it right now, I despise the way the Nationals are treating Strasburg.  It seems like they are intending to treat him with kiddie gloves again this year as they pulled him after 7 strong innings and only 80 pitches. By treating him the way high school pitchers should be treated, the Nationals are robbing their fans of what could be one of the most dominant careers by a power pitcher in the last 20 years and the other 24 men on their roster of a chance to win a World Championship. 

Argument 1:

  

     Rick Porcello is five months younger than Stephen Strasburg. Rick Porcello was only treated with kid gloves his first year in the majors when he threw 170 innings and started the infamous game 163 against the Twins in the Metrodome. He was allowed to pitch all the way through the season and they limited his per game pitch count. He also was only 20 years old.  The result, a sub-4 ERA and health throughout the year. If I recall correctly, Porcello never been on the DL in his four year career. He has thrown between 170 and 185 innings in all of his full seasons in Detroit with the only exception being 2010 when he missed out on 4 starts as he was reassigned to Toledo to work out some mechanical issues. 

     It should also be noted that Porcello hasn't had a major arm injury, however, Strasburg at the end of 2012 was almost 2 years removed from the injury which means he was fully recovered. At 24 years old, its time for him to be a workhorse and a true ace. The Washington Nationals are claiming him to be their ace, but aren't treating him like it. Porcello has handled a larger work load at a much younger age for multiple years and had no issues. Strasburg needs to be looked at in the same way and even moreso as the team's #1. Time to treat him like a #1 Nats. 

Argument 2: 

     Maybe a better comparison to match Strasburg to is Justin Verlander. Like Strasburg, Verlander came out of college and into the pros with a ton of hype. He also is a power pitcher, just like Strasburg featuring the triple digit fastball and nasty hook. 

     Verlander's first season in the majors, 2006, he was 23 years old. He logged 186 innings. The Tigers monitored him closely during individual starts, but let him make his 30 starts and let him be the star he was becoming. Strasburg was 23 last year, his first year coming off Tommy John so it makes sense that he was on a innings limit of sorts, but to shut him down at the end of the year when his arm was fully recovered makes more sense.  

     Looking to the future for Strasburg, the Nationals should follow the Justin Verlander model.  Since his rookie season, JV has thrown 200 innings plus every season since.  He has never had an arm injury, or even been on the disabled list in his 8 year career.  With Strasburg's arm being healthy and Justin Verlander being the best comparison to him as far as style of pitching, I suggest the Nationals adopt the Tigers' path they've taken with Verlander

Conclusion: 

     If this year's season opener for Stephen Strasburg is an indicator for what we can expect to make, it is a huge mistake by the Nationals for a two main reasons:

     Reason number one is that Stephen Strasburg is going to grow tired of the kiddie treatment the team gives him.  Last season he expressed his displeasure about being shut down about every opportunity he got.  Continued treatment almost ensures that as soon as Strasburg is eligible for free agency, he's gone. Every pitcher wants to be allowed to control their game and throw 120 pitches a la Verlander. Pitchers always go out with the intention of giving the bullpen a day off and Strasburg is no different. He also has the talent and ability to do this frequently. Not giving him the opportunity to do that would most definitely force him to consider free agency.  This would be a huge blow for a franchise that would do well to keep him and Bryce Harper for the remainder of their careers. 

     The second reason is that by not allowing Strasburg to be a perennial 220 IP/season pitcher severely diminishes their chances of bringing a World Series to the nation's captiol. Pitching deep into games saves bullpens down the stretch in September when fighting for a playoff spot and also while in the playoffs when being able to stetch the pen is a huge advantage for managers. Secondly, by having an ace, like Strasburg, that can be in full form late into October can quickly make a best of five series or a best of seven series a whole lot shorter. Pitching is what wins in October, and the Nats need Strasburg in order to maintain the competitive advantage they would have almost anyone in the game should they face them in the playoffs.

     Nationals, it's time to take the kid gloves off when dealing with Stephen Strasburg. It's time for him to sink or swim. At 25 years of age, he should be able to handle a large workload and high pitch counts. Let him go for it and reap the rewards. 

     

Game 2 Preview

Detroit Tigers (1-0) vs. Minnesota Twins (0-1)

Time: 4:10 EST at Target Field (Fox Sports Detroit, Tigers Radio Network)

Pitching Matchup: Anibal Sanchez (9-13, 3.86 ERA in 2012)
                                        vs.
                                 Kevin Correia (12-11, 4.21 ERA in 2012)

     Game two of this opening series also features a returning member of the Detroit Tigers' rotation taking on a new face to the Twins organization.  Kevin Correia came to Minnesota after spending the entirety of his career to datein the National League. He had a strong start last season for this Pittsburgh Pirates which helped them jump out to seem like NL Central contenders at the All-Star Break, however, like the rest of the 2012 Pirates squad, he fizzled out down the stretch and ended with very average numbers. Correia features an average fastball and good enough secondary stuff to have lasted ten years in the big leagues.  His ground ball and fly ball percentages are about even which sometimes leads to trouble with giving up the home run.  Look for the Tigers to get their first home run of the season off of him on Thursday.
   
     Anibal Sanchez had himself an all around rough spring.  He left camp early on for the World Baseball Classic to be Team Venezuela's number 1 starter. His start in the WBC only lasted one inning and he gave up 2 runs.  He would not be called on again as Venezuela exited in the first round.  Upon returning to Tigers camp this spring Sanchez continued to struggle with consistency. He didn't command the ball well, leaving to many pitches and got knocked around a bit. His command seemed to come around a bit towards the end of spring before getting rocked in his last spring start. Sanchez will look to establish some consistency and tame his spring struggles as he enters into a season of meaningful baseball. It will be interesting to see how he handles a Twins lineup he should be able to handle.

Keys to Victory: 

• Limit the Base on Balls: It is critical for Sanchez to limit the number of walks he allows tomorrow. The weather should be 20 degrees warmer than the opener on Monday, so weather won;t be an excuse for not having a "feel" for the ball which creates control issues. Sanchez would do well to get deep into this game as the Bullpen had to pitch 4 innings Monday, and long man Drew Smyly, threw about 50 pitches which makes him unavailable for game 2.
• Keep the bases clear for Morneau/Mauer/Willingham: Again, like last game, these three are really the only members of a weak Twins lineup that can consistently hurt a pitcher if they make mistakes.  Mistakes happen from time to time, so it's crucial that the bases be clear in front of this trio in order to ensure a mistake doesn't cost the Tigers 2 or 3 runs.

Prediction:

     

     Again, I like the Tigers in this game based on the matchups. I anticipate the Tigers getting their first couple of home runs in an 8-4 victory tomorrow afternoon. Sanchez pitches good enough to get the W and Victor Martinez drives in 3 en route to player of the game honors. 

     As I said earlier, the Twins lineup will be posted as soon as it is released and I have time to update this post! What do you guys see happening, and who do you have as Game 2 player of the game!

Game 1 Recap

Detroit Tigers 4 (1-0) - Minnesota Twins 2 (0-1)
WP: Justin Verlander (1-0,  0.00 ERA) LP: Vance Worley (0-1, 4.50 ERA) 
S: Phil Coke (1)

Summary:
     
     The Tigers struck early for two runs in the top of the first and never looked back. Miguel Cabrera had an RBI fielders choice followed by an RBI double from Prince Fielder that brought Cabrera around to score. In the second, Omar Infante drove in Jhonny Peralta to take a 3-0 lead which seemed to be enough for Verlander.

     Verlander went five scoreless innings, however, he struggled with his command throughout the start and it caused him to have an earlier exit than we're accustomed to seeing out of him. It was plenty good enough though to get the win. Drew Smyly's rough sixth and beginning of the seventh tightened the game up as he allowed 2 runs to score, but Al Albuquerque came on to clean up Smyly's mess in the seventh with the lead still intact. Joaquin Benoit and Phil Coke neatly took care of the last six outs from there with a wild pitch from Minnesota allowing Prince Fielder to rumble home in the eighth with an insurance run and the Tigers prevailed on Opening Day 4-2. 

3 Alpha Cats:

• Alburquerque/Benoit/Coke: These guys provided stellar work in relief providing the final eight outs, four by strikeout, while only allowing two base runners. Phil Coke ended up with the two out save. So far, Leyland's closing committee is one for one. 

• Jhonny Peralta: Jhonny had a good day at the plate going 2-3 with a walk, scored a run, and had a steal(!). He along with Omar Infante helped set the table for sluggers at the top

• Justin Verlander: Although he only lasted 5 innings, and struggled with control, he kept the Twins scoreless while he was on the bump and did what he had to for a win. 

3 Kittens:

• Alex Avila: Really an all around brutal day for the Tigers' backstop today.  In the way only Avila can, he took a battering behind the dish. At the plate he just got battered by Twins pitchers. On the day he went 0-4 and struck out looking with the bases loaded and one out in the eighth.  With the Tigers only up one run, he moved out of the way of a pitch headed at his legs. I have two huge pet peeves that he violated in the same at bat, getting out of the way of a pitch in key situations and taking strike three with runners in scoring position and less than two out. This earns Avila kitten status for the day.

• Drew Smyly: Drew Smyly also had a rough day in relief for the Tigers. I think the disappointment from missing out on a rotation spot, in addition to the cold weather, he came out of the bullpen in shambles and never found his form. He threw 41 pitches of which only 18 were strikes. He never got into a groove and as a result of wildness allowed the Twins to score a couple of runs and get back in the game.

• Miguel Cabrera: Yes, the reigning MVP did have an RBI, but he also went 0-5 with a couple of strikeouts. The reigning triple crown winner had a rough day at the plate, but those will happen throughout the course of the season. Just consider it good that Miggy got an 0-5 out of the way in the course of a Tigers victory

Game 1 Preview

Detroit Tigers (0-0) vs Minnesota Twins (0-0)

Time: 4:10 EST at Target Field (Fox Sports Detroit, Tigers Radio Network)

Pitching Matchup: Justin Verlander (17-8, 2.64 ERA in 2012)
                                             Vs.
                                    Vance Worley (6-9, 4.20 ERA in 2012)

     Vance Worley is the Twins Opening Day starter pretty much because that's how things worked out coming out of Spring Training. You are welcome to take this as a good indicator of the state of this years' Twins squad. They simply aren't very good. Worley came to them in the offseason in exchange for the Twins sending Ben Revere to the Phillies. Revere is a good riddance because he always managed to play well against the Tigers. 

     There are no secrets about Justin Verlander is anymore. The book is out on him and he still is the best pitcher in the game of baseball. Expect him the Tigers' right hander to maul this Twins lineup. Outside of Justin Morneau, Josh Willingham, and Joe Mauer the twins don't have much if a threat in their lines so scoring will be a challenge for them today, especially in the cold.

Lineups:

Tigers:

1. Austin Jackson, CF
2. Torii Hunter, RF (11-for-50, 9 K’s at Target Field)
3. Miguel Cabrera, 3B
4. Prince Fielder, 1B (1-for-3 vs. Worley)
5. Victor Martinez, DH
6. Andy Dirks, LF
7. Jhonny Peralta, SS
8. Alex Avila, C
9. Omar Infante, 2B (0-for-6 off Worley)

P: Justin Verlander

Twins:

1. Aaron Hicks, CF
2. Joe Mauer, C (20-for-57, 3 HR, 9 RBIs off Verlander, but 0-for-6 last year)
3. Josh Willingham, LF (1-for-8, 3 K’s off Verlander)
4. Justin Morneau, 1B (2-for-18, 10 K’s off Verlander since 2009)
5. Ryan Doumit, DH (0-for-9, 2 K’s off Verlander)
6. Chris Parmelee, RF (2-for-6, HR off Verlander)
7. Trevor Plouffe, 3B (3-for-15, 5 K’s off Verlander)
8. Brian Dozier, 2B
9. Pedro Florimon, SS (0-for-2 off Verlander)

P: Vance Worley

*Lineups from Jason Beck at MLBlogs

Keys to Victory for Detroit:

• Do NOT pitch to Mauer with men on. Joe Mauer kills Justin Verlander. Weird typing that anyone does, however, Mauer owns a career .351 batting average off JV while slugging at a .561 clip and an OPS over 1.000. It's simple. Don't let Joe Mauer beat you. Not many other Twins can. 
• Get to Worley the second time though the order. It's cold, and the Tigers haven't seen Worley's arsenal yet. He is not a hard thrower by any means with a fastball that maxes out generally around 91-92. He throws some adequate junk with a slider and change. It's reasonable to expect the Tigers to look a little awkward in the box until they figure out Worley, but once they do they must capitalize. The Tigers want to do their damage before they get to the pen of the Twins which might be the strongest part if this club. 
• Don't play a one-run game.  The Tigers would behoove themselves by building a good lead and holding onto it. If this game is a one-run game going into the 9th all bets are off given the Tigers closing situation. Giving the person called on for the ninth some breathing room would be very helpful in getting the man Leyland calls Tim's,am the door a little acclimated to the role. 

Prediction 

     I expect Justin Verlander to go 7 strong innings raking up a fair number of strikeouts while being his normal dominant self. The pen will do just fine and the bars will do enough to make this a comfortable 6-2 Tigers win. I'll go with Miguel Cabrera as player of the game as he collects two hits and 2 RBI. To make it fun, leave your player of the game in the comments!

Waiver Wire: Casper Wells

The Seattle Mariners, as expected, have designated Casper Wells for assignment. Wells is a right handed hitting outfielder. You may remember Wells was part of the package Detroit shipped off to Seattle to acquire Doug Fister.

Seattle has 10 days to trade him, release him or outright him to the minors. If Wells clears waivers, he cannot refuse an assignment to the minors as he does not have enough service time. If Detroit plans on acquiring him, they would need to make a trade or hope for his release.

Should the Tigers go after Wells?

Tough to say. Matt Tuiasosopo earned his spot on the roster after smashing the ball in spring training. In his last 15 games he hit .455 with 5 doubles, 4 home runs and 9 runs batted in. But, he is a converted infielder. His defense and instincts in the OF may be a problem.

Detroit fans should remember Wells. He was a solid 4th outfielder before the trade and has fulfilled the same role in Seattle. Last season his hitting production was average but not terrible for a reserve. He hit .228 with 10 home runs and 36 runs batted in. He is also a good defensive outfielder and makes plays.

Verdict

Give Matt Tuiasosopo the shot. He earned it.

What do you think?

2013 Season Predictions: Take 2

Here's my take on the 2013 season:

American League:

AL East - Tampa Bay Rays
AL Central - Detroit Tigers
AL West - Los Angeles Angels
Wildcards - Baltimore Orioles, Oakland A's

AL MVP - Evan Longoria
AL Cy Young - Justin Verlander
AL Rookie of the year - Trevor Bauer

AL champs: Detroit Tigers

National League:

NL East - Washington Nationals
NL Central - Cincinnati Reds
NL West - San Francisco Giants
Wildcards - Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers

NL MVP - Bryce Harper
NL Cy Young - Stephen Strasburg
NL Rookie of the year - Julio Teheran

NL Champs: Washington Nationals

World Series: Tigers over Nationals in 6.

I think the Tigers will finally show up in the World Series and bring the title back to Motown. It'll be a tough matchup. Both teams have excellent rotations with great lineups. The Nats have more speed and a stronger bullpen. The Tigers have more sluggers and a veteran savy team. The Nats have a lot of youth which may be their downfall. This Tigers team was there last year and they bolster an even stronger lineup. Verlander being the competitor he is, won't allow another bad showing. Paired with the added leadership of Torii Hunter and the bat of Victor Martinez to an already strong lineup, the Tigers should be able to hold off the Nationals.
Baseball is a long and crazy season and can't wait for it to start!

2013 Season Predictions

     Its opening day morning! Here I lay out my 2013 season predicions!

AL Predictions:

AL East Champion: Baltimore Orioles
AL Central Champion: Detroit Tigers
AL West Champion: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Wild Card Winners: Toronto Blue Jays/Texas Rangers

AL Most Valuable Player: Mike Trout
AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander
AL Rookie of the Year: Will Myers

AL Champion: Detroit Tigers

NL Predictions: 

NL East Champion: Washington Nationals
NL Central Champion: Cincinnati Reds
NL West Champion: San Francisco Giants
Wild Card Winners: Atlanta Braves/Los Angeles Dodgers

NL Most Valuable Player: Joey Votto
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
NL Rookie of the Year: Julio Teheran

NL Champion: Washington Nationals

World Series Predictions:
 Nationals over Tigers in 6 games

World Series MVP: Ryan Zimmerman

     I see the Nationals defeating the Tigers in the World Series this year.  Washington may be the only team with more talent stacked into their rotation than the Tigers. And their bullpen is lights out as well. With half the games not allowing for a designated hitter, that means the Tigers either lose Victor Martinez's bat, or Alex Avila's much better glove behind the dish. This is big advantage for the Nationals, and I think they prevail on the shoulders of their pitching staff and Ryan Zimmerman. Hopefully I'm wrong!

     Happy Opening Day folks, it's been a long winter, and meaningful baseball means Spring is officially here (even if the weather disagrees)! In order to get prepared for the Tigers opener tomorrow, check out my series preview.

Have a blessed Easter!

Series Preview: Minnesota

     It's two days before the Tigers open up their season in Minnesota. When they land in Minneapolis they will be greeted rudely by winter temperatures.  The high for Monday in Minneapolis is 34 degrees which neither teams hitters will appreciate very much.  The ball already doesn't travel very well at Target Field, and the cold heavy air won't help any either. After an off day on Tuesday the series will resume on Wednesday and conclude on Thursday under much better conditions with the temperatures projected to be in the 50's. 

Pitching Probables:

     Game 1: Justin Verlander-DET vs. Vance Worley-MIN
     Game 2: Anibal Sanchez-DET vs. Kevin Correa-MIN
     Game 3: Rick Porcello-DET vs. Mike Pelfrey-MIN

     The pitching match-ups in this series all heavily favor the Tigers. Verlander is the best pitcher in baseball, and its safe to assume he will do what he does. Vance Worley will start opening day for the Twins. He is the first of three Twin pitchers Detroit will face this week that have come from the National League during the off-season. As a result, the hitters don't know much about facing these guys which could play into the Twins' hands. Other than one time through the lineup, however, I can't see anything but a large advantage for the Tigers with the pitching this series. 

Lineups:

     There really is no contest here as far as strength of the lineups in this series. Minnesota is unanimously predicted to finish last in the AL Central for a reason. Minnesota will rely heavily on Joe Mauer, Justin Moreneau, and Josh Willingham for almost all of their offensive production as the rest of the lineup inspires little to no fear in opposing pitchers.  The Tigers, on the other hand, have the arguably the deepest and most intimidating lineup in the American League in a category that only the Anaheim Angels could possibly touch.  The Opening Day lineup will look like this:

1) Austin Jackson - 8
2) Torii Hunter - 9
3) Miguel Cabrera - 5
4) Prince Fielder - 3
5) Victor Martinez - DH
6) Andy Dirks - 7
7) Jhonny Peralta - 6
8) Alex Avila - 2
9) Omar Infante - 4

Justin Verlander - 1

     This lineup is a murderers row. The Tigers, on paper, have a large edge here as well. 

Bullpen:

     If I was pressed to guess, I would assume the member of the 'pen we're most likely to see this series in a save situation would be Phil Coke if there are multiple lefties due up in the ninth, or Al Alburquerque if its a right handed heavy part of the Twins order due up in the ninth. Either way, it will be interesting to see how the skipper uses his bullpen and closing committee throughout the year. Definitely something the watch closely as the season progresses.  

     On paper, this series is an easy sweep for the Tigers to start the season. In baseball, however, anything can happen and margins of error are typically small. That's why they play the games! Enjoy meaningful baseball this week folks! It's back!

Called up to the big leagues.

Tiger fans! My name is Justin Hawkes and I am excited to be joining this blog. I am a 24 year Hope College graduate with degrees in Accounting and Management.

I have been a Tigers fan my entire life and find myself constantly searching for news involving the Tigers. I'll be contributing any way I can with game/series previews, nightly recaps, trade rumors or roster management updates.

I'm not a writer per se, but hopefully my knowledge and love for the Tigers will be sufficient. It's going to be a busy Tigers season, hopefully going strong until the end of October! Go Tigers!!

PS Go BLUE!!

Verlander Extended through 2020

     Justin Verlander is one paid man. About 15 minutes after a very cryptic tweet, the Detroit Tigers announced that the team and Verlander have agreed to a 7 year contract extension worth $180 million. This makes him the highest paid pitcher in the history of the game as it is $5M more than the 7 year $175 million deal signed by Felix Hernandez this winter. The Tigers also gave him the $200 million mark by creating an 8^th year on a vesting option basis. That means that if he hits a certain performance marker he will get that eighth year guaranteed (EDIT: He must finish top 5 in 2019 Cy Young voting for year 8 to be guaranteed). This is a historical deal and ensures that Justin Verlander will be a Tiger for life. This is an appropriate time for all of you Tiger fans to pause for a moment and embrace how lucky you are to have a supportive owner in Mike Illitch. He really is committed to giving Detroit a ring whether it is during his lifetime or after.

What does this mean for the Tigers?

     As I suggested in my earlier post, the Tigers extended Justin Verlander with a large extension which will make him baseball’s higher pitcher.  The big difference is that they didn’t choose to inflate his strategy over the next two years to make the back end less costly.  I still maintain that he is worth more now, then he will be in 2019, but that’s a different discussion for a different day.

     As it stands under the parameters of this contract, Justin Verlander will make $40 million over the next two years. For years 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 he will make a combined $140 million for an annual average value of $28 million dollars a year. With this deal, unless the Illitch family decides they want to spend like the Yankees or Dodgers, it means that this year will likely be Max Scherzer’s last in Detroit.  There is no way I see that the Tigers can afford to keep him around when he hits free agency as he will command a deal probably around 17-20 million dollars per year. No team has that much to invest in their rotation. With that being probable, look for Detroit to deal Max after the 2013 season to maximize the return they can get for him via trade.  This also allows Drew Smyly to step in and fill his rotation slot. 

     I firmly believe that keeping Rick Porcello was a huge key to making the Justin Verlander extension possible and worth the dollar amount it cost the Tigers.  It made Max Scherzer leaving town a tough, but manageable pill to swallow. A rotation with Rick Porcello and Drew Smyly has depth when paired with Verlander, Anibal Sanchez, and Doug Fister. Trading Porcello, and then signing Verlander to the extension would have made the transition into the post-Scherzer era fairly rocky.

 Verlander’s Side:

     This is what Justin Verlander wanted all along.  He wanted a chance to be the first $200 million pitcher, and the Tigers gave him that. He also wanted to make sure he was the highest paid pitcher in history; the Tigers gave him that as well.  All along, I believe his seemingly contradictory comments were all a ploy by him and his agency to try and speed up extension talks. Justin Verlander wanted this deal and the peace of mind as soon as possible.  He never wanted to leave Detroit, and I’m not convinced he ever would, but he threw out the quote that he thinks free agency would be fun to put doubt in the front office’s mind to speed up the process.  It worked beautifully. He got what he wanted, the Tigers locked up maybe the greatest pitcher of the last 20 years for his career, and the fans are ecstatic.

     In the end, this deal is a win for both sides. It makes sense from the team’s perspective and from Verlander’s. Tigers fans, look forward and soak up the rest of Verlander’s career in your Tigers’ uniform.  It will be a fun ride, and every time he pitches, history might happen.  It’s a great day for baseball fans in Michigan.