A Closer Look at the Jose Valverde Signing (Pun intended)

  Breakdown:

   Earlier this week, the Tigers brought back Jose Valverde after Phil Coke blew his first save of the Year in Minnesota. The Tigers agreed with Valverde on a minor league deal in an agreement that allows the Tigers up to a month to see Papa Grande against live hitters in real game situations. If all goes well, you can expect the Tigers to sign Valverde to a major league deal that makes him their closer for the rest of the year. If it doesn't go well, the Tigers can release him, and send him on his way to try and find employment with another squad.

     On the surface, this deal makes all the sense in the world for the Tigers. Many of the national baseball writers and former executives applauded the deal as it is a no-risk deal for the Tigers as they won't have to make a significant monetary investment unless they deem Valverde good enough to close at a major league level. The timing of the deal made it seem a little bit panicky, but the low risk that the investment carries indicates it wasn't a panic move.

Why it makes sense:

     This deal makes sense simply because it is minimal to no investment, could potentially take a ton of pressure and scrutiny off of manager Jim Leyland, and the Tigers have no set, everyday closer which is a luxury to have.

     First, lets look at the Tigers' options as it stands today. The first option is playoff hero, Phil Coke. He currently is 1 for 2 on the year in save opportunities. He has the quirky attitude a closer should have, he has a bulldog mentality, and he has been in every late game situation you can be in.  The problem is that he can't get right handed hitters out. His career stats versus right handed hitters isn't real great. Righties hit .301/.371/.435. This is simply not good enough to be a closer as most managers are going to be able to create the match up they want offensively when their team is down in the 9th.

     Joaquin Benoit is another option, however he is prone to issuing walks when the situation gets tight and he has carved out a nice niche for himself in the eight inning. He is significantly better when getting outs 22,23, and 24, then when trying to get the following three. Issuing free passes in the ninth isn't ideal for a closer, especially one who doesn't possess a high strikeout rate. Another issue with Benoit as a closer is that he gives up far too many homeruns.

     Al Albuquerque and Brayan Villareal we can lump together as similar options. Both of these guys haven't pitched a whole lot in the big leagues, but have similar, devastating arsenals. The problem with both of these guys is that they haven't been terrible poised at times throughout their careers and the devastation goes both the wrong way when their lack of poise rears its head. Villareal displayed what can happen when he tightens up against Minnesota this week when he allowed six runners, five runs and only recorded two outs. Albuquerque who posesses an equally good fastball and maybe better slider also has shown a propensity to struggle when things get tight in critical situations and his command eludes him. Of these two choices Albuquerque is the better options, but Leyland seems to pick his spots with Al Al and doesn't seem inclined to make that spot late in close ball games unless he needs a strikeout. Albuquerque's 13.55 K/9 strikeout rate over his short career indicates that in a year or two he has to potential to be a dynamic closer.

     As you can see the Tigers don't have a great closer option that one could be confident in as things currently stand and taking the no risk chance on Valverde seems pretty logical, however, as I will explain the move is one that I don't care for.

Why it doesn't:

     There is one main reason which makes me question if this was the right move to make. That reason is Bruce Rondon. Rondon is the 22 year old closer of the future for the Detroit Tigers. Not making the team out of spring training might have been a blessing in disguise for the flame throwing right hander who features a fastball that can touch 103 MPH. By not making the team, he was going to have the opportunity to learn how to close a game in an atmosphere where you aren't expected to win a pennant and possibly a World Series.  Allowing him another year in Triple A to develop the ability to tackle the beast that is the ninth inning was probably the best thing for him and his long term future. Last year at this time, he opened the season in High-A Lakeland and ended it in Toledo where he got 8 innings of experience. It's an aggressive track he's on and Spring Training showed he has the potential to be lights out in the ninth, but he just needs more experience against at least fringe major league pitchers.

     This is why bringing Valverde in does not make sense. In a way, Rondon has had his psyche a little damaged as he was tabbed as the closer coming into this year while being paraded around by the Tigers during their Winter Caravan. He struggled a little bit this spring and was sent back to the minors which was by all accounts pretty deflating for the big righty. Now with Valverde coming in, it sends the message to Rondon that the Tigers don't feel like he will be ready to close games at any point this year, and that Valverde, a guy who completely imploded last year and is hated by many Tigers fans, would be more trusted to get the job done than he is.  That isn't sending the right message to the guy you need as your closer in 2014 and beyond.

     The other reason why this seems to be a poor decision to have Valverde assume the closer role in Triple-A for the next while is that it further delays the chance for Rondon to develop as a closer. These are valuable innings for Rondon to have under his belt. He needs to be in as many save chances as possible and Valverde is going to be in the way of that happening.

Conclusion:

     This move makes sense given the win now mantra the Tigers clearly have this year and next, however, I think it's the wrong move for the long term good of the organization. Rondon needs to be given every opportunity to develop into a great closer that the Tigers would love to have going forward. Valverde is not a dominant enough closer anymore and doesn't have the potential to be the closer he once was to justify having Rondon's development potentially stunted, and for this reason I don't agree with bringing Valverde on board.

    What are your thoughts on the move to bring in Valverde. I would love it for you guys to leave some opinions in the comments and discuss what you think.

Game 5 Preview

New York Yankees (1-3) vs. Detroit Tigers (2-2)

Time: 4:05 PM, Comerica Park (FOX, Tigers Radio Network)

Pitching Matchup: Phil Hughes ( 16-16, 4.23 ERA in 2012, Activated off DL 4/6)
                                       vs.
                                 Max Scherzer (16-7, 3.74 ERA in 2012)

     Big righty Phil Hughes will be on the mound for the Yankees Saturday, replacing David Phelps in the rotation. Phelps was originally slated to start today as Phil Hughes was on the Disabled List. The Yankees, however, have deemed Hughes fit to pitch and activated him on Saturday morning to make the afternoon start that originally was his when the Yankees broke camp. Hughes will likely be on a lower pitch count as he is fresh off the DL, so we will probably see Phelps as well.  Tigers hitters haven't had a whole lot of trouble with Hughes in the past, so that may be a break for the club in getting to face him. We shall see.

     Max Scherzer is the man Jim Leyland will hand entrust the ball do from the beginning on Saturday. Scherzer had a mediocre spring, but definitely was peaking towards the end. Scherzer will be featuring his mid to high 90s fastball and his wipeout slider. His third pitch is a changeup that can get him a ground ball when he needs one. Scherzer has had a lot of success against the Yankees in the past which boasted much stronger lineups, so look for that trend to continue tomorrow.

Outlook:

     It will likely take the Tigers a time through the order to get used to Phelps who will have an expanded arsenal as he is now a starter. Don't fret if the Tigers don't score in the first inning for the first time this season. The game tomorrow will be on the big network, FOX at 4:05 PM. The temperature is supposed to be in the upper 50s and maybe even reach 60, however rain may make an appearance. With the temperature increasing, we can expect the ball to fly a little more so hopefully the bats will wake up.

     This game is the kind where the Tigers tend to struggle. They haven't really had much success against pitchers they haven't seen before, and David Phelps is a new starter for this team to face. I see Max pitching defense, but the lineup may have trouble giving him support. My prediction is that the Yankees take game two tomorrow as they are needing a win in the worst way right now. It may be April, but a win is worth the same now as it is in September, so don't be surprised to see Joe Girardi's troops come out with some intensity tomorrow and an extra level of focus.

Game 4 Recap

New York Yankees 3, Detroit Tigers 8

WP: Doug Fister (1-0, 5.40 ERA)   LP: Ivan Nova (0-1, 7.71 ERA)    S: Drew Smyly (1)

Summary: 

     Again, the Tigers jumped out to an early lead scoring twice in the first couple of innings on Ivan Nova while driving his pitch count up. Austin Jackson started off the game with a lead off single for the 4th time in 4 games and after a successful hit and run from Torii Hunter, was able to come home on a RBI ground out from Miguel Cabrera. In the second, Omar Infante picked up and RBI single driving in Andy Dirks who swiped a bag to get himself in scoring position.

     After the first two innings, the Tigers' bats went silent as the Yankees stormed back to take a 3-2 lead after Kevin Youkilis went yard followed by a wild pitch from Doug Fister to take the lead. The Tigers seemed to be woken up by the Yankees rally, specifically Prince Fielder who wasted no time in reclaiming the lead with a three run blast that put the score at 5-3 in favor of the home team.

     Drew Smyly came on in relief of Doug Fister in the 6th inning after Fister continued a trend of Tigers' starters only lasting five innings and pitched brilliantly. He faced twelve batters and sat all of the down in four dominant innings striking out five in the process. While Smyly was doing his thing, Alex Avila managed to get himself going with a bomb to right in the bottom of the sixth. Fielder also decided that one was not enough and went yard on a two-run big fly in the bottom of the seventh to stake the Tigers to a 8-3 lead.

Earned their Stripes:

• Prince Fielder: Fielder went off today in a big way. 2-4 with 2 HRs and 5 RBI is the definition of earning your stripes. His three-run jack in the sixth to instantly reclaim a lead was clutch and very needed this afternoon. His second bomb all but putting away the game was icing on the cake for a great home opener for Prince.

• Drew Smyly: In his second appearance of the season Drew Smyly had a great showing earning the rare 12 out save. He was dominant through his four innings and completely shut down the Yankees. He saved the bullpen for the rest of the weekend which is very important going forward. 

• Omar Infante: Infante has been the Tigers' most consistent early this year and drove in the second run of the day. He ended up 2-4 with an RBI and one run scored. 

Declawed:

• Doug Fister: Maybe this is a little harsh here, but Doug didn't make it into the sixth inning, and definitely struggled with his command. As a result, despite getting the win, he got beat up a little bit today.

• Miguel Cabrera: Despite driving in another run today, Miggy just hasn't looked comfortable in the box yet. No worries here though as he'll end the year at the same place he normally does which is the top of the league in about every hitting category. 

Outlook:

     Giving the home fans something to cheer about will give the Tigers something to feel good about as well and they will sleep well tonight in their own beds. Tomorrow they will look to continue the momentum as they give the ball to Max Scherzer who the Yankees will counter with David Phelps. Tomorrow's start time is at 4:05 PM on FOX.

Game 4 Preview: Yankees

Detroit Tigers (1-2) vs. New York Yankees (1-2)

Time: 1:10 EST Comerica Park (Fox Sports Detroit, Tigers Radio Network)

Pitching Matchup: Ivan Nova-NYY (12-8, 5.09 ERA in 2012)

                                           vs. 

                               Doug Fister -DET ( 10-10, 3.45 ERA in 2012)

     Ivan Nova is a wildcard pitcher for the Yankees. No one really knows what to expect of him after a huge rookie year and a rough second year on the bump.  The Tigers would do well to get to him early and often to  get to the bullpen early. The Yankees had a tough series at home versus the Red Sox earlier this week, similar to that of the Tigers vs. Minnesota. Their bullpen is a little tired out right now, so the earlier the Tigers force Nova out of the game, the better their chances are to secure a much needed win. 

     Doug Fister had a little bit of a rough spring this year. He struggled a lot to find his command and "feel" for the baseball. As a guy who is certainly not a power pitcher, he relies on having his command on point. He looked better in his last spring start against the Rays at Tropicana field and will look to build off of that today.

Outlook:

     The Tigers need a win badly today. They need production from the middle of their order. That means Cabrera, Fielder, and Martinez all need to wake up and get going today. The crowd is going to be raucous and the Tigers will need to feed off of that and not disappoint an overflow crowd.  It is a holiday in Detroit to day, so look for the Tigers to make sure it's a good one for the city. 

     Brennan Boesch will make his return to Comerica in pinstripes today hitting in the 5 hole and playing right field. I always have had a spot in my fandom for Boesch and hope he does well in New York. Just not this weekend.

     The Tigers need to win this series and I think that they will start off the right way towards doing that today. They have the starting pitching advantage and they have an advantage in the lineup. As we found out in Minnesota, that doesn't by any means translate to a win, however I think it will today. There will come a day where I don't pick the Tigers to win, I promise, but today isn't it. Go Tigs!

Game 3 Recap

Detroit Tigers 2, Minnesota Twins 8

WP: Mike Pelfrey (1-0, 0.00 ERA) LP: Rick Porcello (0-1, 5.06 ERA)

Summary:

     Again, the Tigers jumped out to an early lead in for the third time in three games.  Again, the did nothing from the dish after the third inning stranding six runners in scoring position on the day. The Tigers dropped the third game of the series, and the series overall as their bats have decided to stay back in Lakeland to catch a few extra rays.  One can only hope going forward that the bats decide they want to make their debut appearance tomorrow at Comerica against the New York Yankees.

     This game was rather uneventful. Rick Porcello went 5.1 innings giving up 3 runs on 2 home runs as he had trouble keeping his sinker down. He also didn't mix pitches at all virtually going with the fastball the whole second time through the lineup. Darin Downs and Octavio Dotel effectively ushered the team into the eighth inning where Brayan Villareal proceeded to implode recording two outs and giving up 5 runs. He took the Tigers out of the game and that was all she wrote.

3 Alpha Cats:

• Austin Jackson: AJax had a good day at the plate going 2 for 3 with a double, steal and a run scored. Unfortunately he was about the only person on the squad interested in swinging the bat. He set the table, and none of the big cats wanted to eat today so he was stranded on the base paths.

• Darin Downs: Downs is not a flashy guy, but more often than not he'll get the job done. He did get the job done again today with a perfect inning featuring two strikeouts. 

• Victor Martinez: I'll give Victor the third Alpha of the game as he went 2-4. Unfortunately he chose his spots poorly as his hits came with no one in scoring position. 

3 Kittens:

• The Offense: Small sample size of three games but this team is in an absolute offensive funk. They aren't taking good at bats, working from behind in the count, and saving their worst specifically for when runners are in scoring position

• Alex Avila: Alex simply is in a bad spot right now hitting, and we saw it today with his bat slam after popping up a good pitch. He looks totally lost at the plate. I understand that he likes to take walks, but his best year, which happened to be his rookie year, he would let fly on a first pitch fastball down the middle. Somewhere along the line he lost his aggressive nature and decided to work from an 0-1 count every at bat. He needs to change his approach at the plate. Most Tiger fans and certainly Jim Leyland would sacrifice some on base percentage points for the productive pop he had in his bat his rookie year. 

• Brayan Villareal: This one is self explanatory. 2 outs, 4 hits, 2 walks, 5 earned runs. Nuff said. 

     Going forward the Tigers head home to open a weekend set with the Yankees at Comerica Park tomorrow.  The atmosphere will be great and hopefully the baseball will be as well. Doug Fister will toe the slab for the Tigers and it will be Ivan Nova getting the start for New York. 

The Return of Valverde...Maybe.

The Tigers have done the impossible and signed a closer! Well, sort off. Today, the Tigers brought back Jose Valverde on a minor league contract.

He'll pitch in the minors to see where he is at, presumably at Toledo. If he is not back in the majors by May 5, the contract allows him to opt out and become a free agent again.

What this means?

If the closer by committee becomes a regular problem, Valverde will be called upon to close for the Tigers once again. He is a three time all star and a proven closer. He had a terrible postseason last year, but I believe he can regain prime form.

Game 3 Preview: Minnesota

Detroit Tigers (1-1) at Minnesota Twins (1-1)

Time: 1:10 PM EST at Target Field (Fox Sports Detroit, Tigers Radio)

Pitching Matchup: Rick Porcello (10-12, 4.59 ERA in 2012)
                                        vs.
                                  Mike Pelfrey (0-0, 2.29 ERA in 2012)

     Mike Pelfrey will be on the bump for the Twins as the series concludes with a matinee rubber match tomorrow.  He came to Minnesota this off-season from the New York Mets, and like yesterday's starter, Kevin Correia, he has spent his whole career to date in the National League.
   
     Pelfrey spent most of 2012 on the shelf with from a season ending elbow injury early in 2012. It is hard to know what his arm has recovered too, but based off his spring he should feature a sinker in the low 90s accompanied by a splitter, slider and changeup combination. He had a banner year with the Mets in 2010 winning 15 games and an ERA in the 3.40 range.  Since then, however, he hasn't been terribly dominant so a jump to the varsity circuit (American League) could be rough for him.  That said, the first two starters the Twins have rolled out from the National League has stymied the Tiger offense.

     Tigers fans are looking for a new Porcello tomorrow. Porcello had a fantastic spring in which he walked nobody in 24 major league innings. He also has scrapped his slider for a curveball and has the fastball popping in the mid 90s with the sinker working at only a couple ticks below that.  Tigers camp officials believe that he has turned a corner this off-season and decided to keep him as the 5th man in the rotation. It's time, this season, for Porcello to reward their faith in him and prove them right. I also would like to have my earlier post on this blog be proven correct by Porcello as well.  A great first start today would do that and secure the Tigers a road series win.  After giving away today, and Sanchez only lasting five innings, it would be helpful if Porcello could work into the 7th and save the bullpen a little bit before going home to face the Yankees in the home opening series.

Outlook:

      I look for the Tigers offense to come up with a little more intensity this afternoon and put a few runs on the board. The Tigers closer by committee let them down yesterday and would very much appreciate an easy day tomorrow. The Tigers shouldn't lose a series this series to the Twins, especially after the way they gave away game two. I look for the Tigers to win the rubber game in this series and return home to a raucous opening day crowd to take on the Yankees.

     I'll take Rick Porcello as my player of the game as he goes 7 strong innings and takes a load off the bullpen. The offense hopefully wakes up a little bit and starts having quality at bats. The shadows also will be a non-factor for most, if not the whole game. The first two games the hitters have dealt with nasty shadows between the pitcher's mound and home plate. Look for a little better contact from both sides today as the shadows are a non-factor.