2013 Season Predictions: Take 2

Here's my take on the 2013 season:

American League:

AL East - Tampa Bay Rays
AL Central - Detroit Tigers
AL West - Los Angeles Angels
Wildcards - Baltimore Orioles, Oakland A's

AL MVP - Evan Longoria
AL Cy Young - Justin Verlander
AL Rookie of the year - Trevor Bauer

AL champs: Detroit Tigers

National League:

NL East - Washington Nationals
NL Central - Cincinnati Reds
NL West - San Francisco Giants
Wildcards - Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers

NL MVP - Bryce Harper
NL Cy Young - Stephen Strasburg
NL Rookie of the year - Julio Teheran

NL Champs: Washington Nationals

World Series: Tigers over Nationals in 6.

I think the Tigers will finally show up in the World Series and bring the title back to Motown. It'll be a tough matchup. Both teams have excellent rotations with great lineups. The Nats have more speed and a stronger bullpen. The Tigers have more sluggers and a veteran savy team. The Nats have a lot of youth which may be their downfall. This Tigers team was there last year and they bolster an even stronger lineup. Verlander being the competitor he is, won't allow another bad showing. Paired with the added leadership of Torii Hunter and the bat of Victor Martinez to an already strong lineup, the Tigers should be able to hold off the Nationals.
Baseball is a long and crazy season and can't wait for it to start!

2013 Season Predictions

     Its opening day morning! Here I lay out my 2013 season predicions!

AL Predictions:

AL East Champion: Baltimore Orioles
AL Central Champion: Detroit Tigers
AL West Champion: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Wild Card Winners: Toronto Blue Jays/Texas Rangers

AL Most Valuable Player: Mike Trout
AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander
AL Rookie of the Year: Will Myers

AL Champion: Detroit Tigers

NL Predictions: 

NL East Champion: Washington Nationals
NL Central Champion: Cincinnati Reds
NL West Champion: San Francisco Giants
Wild Card Winners: Atlanta Braves/Los Angeles Dodgers

NL Most Valuable Player: Joey Votto
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
NL Rookie of the Year: Julio Teheran

NL Champion: Washington Nationals

World Series Predictions:
 Nationals over Tigers in 6 games

World Series MVP: Ryan Zimmerman

     I see the Nationals defeating the Tigers in the World Series this year.  Washington may be the only team with more talent stacked into their rotation than the Tigers. And their bullpen is lights out as well. With half the games not allowing for a designated hitter, that means the Tigers either lose Victor Martinez's bat, or Alex Avila's much better glove behind the dish. This is big advantage for the Nationals, and I think they prevail on the shoulders of their pitching staff and Ryan Zimmerman. Hopefully I'm wrong!

     Happy Opening Day folks, it's been a long winter, and meaningful baseball means Spring is officially here (even if the weather disagrees)! In order to get prepared for the Tigers opener tomorrow, check out my series preview.

Have a blessed Easter!

Series Preview: Minnesota

     It's two days before the Tigers open up their season in Minnesota. When they land in Minneapolis they will be greeted rudely by winter temperatures.  The high for Monday in Minneapolis is 34 degrees which neither teams hitters will appreciate very much.  The ball already doesn't travel very well at Target Field, and the cold heavy air won't help any either. After an off day on Tuesday the series will resume on Wednesday and conclude on Thursday under much better conditions with the temperatures projected to be in the 50's. 

Pitching Probables:

     Game 1: Justin Verlander-DET vs. Vance Worley-MIN
     Game 2: Anibal Sanchez-DET vs. Kevin Correa-MIN
     Game 3: Rick Porcello-DET vs. Mike Pelfrey-MIN

     The pitching match-ups in this series all heavily favor the Tigers. Verlander is the best pitcher in baseball, and its safe to assume he will do what he does. Vance Worley will start opening day for the Twins. He is the first of three Twin pitchers Detroit will face this week that have come from the National League during the off-season. As a result, the hitters don't know much about facing these guys which could play into the Twins' hands. Other than one time through the lineup, however, I can't see anything but a large advantage for the Tigers with the pitching this series. 

Lineups:

     There really is no contest here as far as strength of the lineups in this series. Minnesota is unanimously predicted to finish last in the AL Central for a reason. Minnesota will rely heavily on Joe Mauer, Justin Moreneau, and Josh Willingham for almost all of their offensive production as the rest of the lineup inspires little to no fear in opposing pitchers.  The Tigers, on the other hand, have the arguably the deepest and most intimidating lineup in the American League in a category that only the Anaheim Angels could possibly touch.  The Opening Day lineup will look like this:

1) Austin Jackson - 8
2) Torii Hunter - 9
3) Miguel Cabrera - 5
4) Prince Fielder - 3
5) Victor Martinez - DH
6) Andy Dirks - 7
7) Jhonny Peralta - 6
8) Alex Avila - 2
9) Omar Infante - 4

Justin Verlander - 1

     This lineup is a murderers row. The Tigers, on paper, have a large edge here as well. 

Bullpen:

     If I was pressed to guess, I would assume the member of the 'pen we're most likely to see this series in a save situation would be Phil Coke if there are multiple lefties due up in the ninth, or Al Alburquerque if its a right handed heavy part of the Twins order due up in the ninth. Either way, it will be interesting to see how the skipper uses his bullpen and closing committee throughout the year. Definitely something the watch closely as the season progresses.  

     On paper, this series is an easy sweep for the Tigers to start the season. In baseball, however, anything can happen and margins of error are typically small. That's why they play the games! Enjoy meaningful baseball this week folks! It's back!

Called up to the big leagues.

Tiger fans! My name is Justin Hawkes and I am excited to be joining this blog. I am a 24 year Hope College graduate with degrees in Accounting and Management.

I have been a Tigers fan my entire life and find myself constantly searching for news involving the Tigers. I'll be contributing any way I can with game/series previews, nightly recaps, trade rumors or roster management updates.

I'm not a writer per se, but hopefully my knowledge and love for the Tigers will be sufficient. It's going to be a busy Tigers season, hopefully going strong until the end of October! Go Tigers!!

PS Go BLUE!!

Verlander Extended through 2020

     Justin Verlander is one paid man. About 15 minutes after a very cryptic tweet, the Detroit Tigers announced that the team and Verlander have agreed to a 7 year contract extension worth $180 million. This makes him the highest paid pitcher in the history of the game as it is $5M more than the 7 year $175 million deal signed by Felix Hernandez this winter. The Tigers also gave him the $200 million mark by creating an 8^th year on a vesting option basis. That means that if he hits a certain performance marker he will get that eighth year guaranteed (EDIT: He must finish top 5 in 2019 Cy Young voting for year 8 to be guaranteed). This is a historical deal and ensures that Justin Verlander will be a Tiger for life. This is an appropriate time for all of you Tiger fans to pause for a moment and embrace how lucky you are to have a supportive owner in Mike Illitch. He really is committed to giving Detroit a ring whether it is during his lifetime or after.

What does this mean for the Tigers?

     As I suggested in my earlier post, the Tigers extended Justin Verlander with a large extension which will make him baseball’s higher pitcher.  The big difference is that they didn’t choose to inflate his strategy over the next two years to make the back end less costly.  I still maintain that he is worth more now, then he will be in 2019, but that’s a different discussion for a different day.

     As it stands under the parameters of this contract, Justin Verlander will make $40 million over the next two years. For years 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 he will make a combined $140 million for an annual average value of $28 million dollars a year. With this deal, unless the Illitch family decides they want to spend like the Yankees or Dodgers, it means that this year will likely be Max Scherzer’s last in Detroit.  There is no way I see that the Tigers can afford to keep him around when he hits free agency as he will command a deal probably around 17-20 million dollars per year. No team has that much to invest in their rotation. With that being probable, look for Detroit to deal Max after the 2013 season to maximize the return they can get for him via trade.  This also allows Drew Smyly to step in and fill his rotation slot. 

     I firmly believe that keeping Rick Porcello was a huge key to making the Justin Verlander extension possible and worth the dollar amount it cost the Tigers.  It made Max Scherzer leaving town a tough, but manageable pill to swallow. A rotation with Rick Porcello and Drew Smyly has depth when paired with Verlander, Anibal Sanchez, and Doug Fister. Trading Porcello, and then signing Verlander to the extension would have made the transition into the post-Scherzer era fairly rocky.

 Verlander’s Side:

     This is what Justin Verlander wanted all along.  He wanted a chance to be the first $200 million pitcher, and the Tigers gave him that. He also wanted to make sure he was the highest paid pitcher in history; the Tigers gave him that as well.  All along, I believe his seemingly contradictory comments were all a ploy by him and his agency to try and speed up extension talks. Justin Verlander wanted this deal and the peace of mind as soon as possible.  He never wanted to leave Detroit, and I’m not convinced he ever would, but he threw out the quote that he thinks free agency would be fun to put doubt in the front office’s mind to speed up the process.  It worked beautifully. He got what he wanted, the Tigers locked up maybe the greatest pitcher of the last 20 years for his career, and the fans are ecstatic.

     In the end, this deal is a win for both sides. It makes sense from the team’s perspective and from Verlander’s. Tigers fans, look forward and soak up the rest of Verlander’s career in your Tigers’ uniform.  It will be a fun ride, and every time he pitches, history might happen.  It’s a great day for baseball fans in Michigan. 

Verlander Extension Coming?

Justin Verlander has just sent out a recent tweet saying that "It's a great day! Big news coming later!" Based on circumstances and things I have gathered I am guessing we will see an extension to make him the highest paid pitcher in the game either today or tomorrow.
If and when that happens rest assured we'll have it covered right here and break down the deal and what it means for Detroit going forward. I also will compare it to my earlier proposition post from Wednesday. Stay Tuned!

Edit: Justin Verlander has agreed to a 5 year contract extension with a vesting option for a 6th year. Look for a comprehensive post on the details and what it means for both parties going forward tonight. Good day in Detroit!

A Super Prospect Swap?

     While thinking about Opening Day on this slow news day, I daydreamed up a simple, but meaningful, trade that seemed unprecedented, but logical. What I came up with was the Tigers sending their #1 rated prospect, 3B/OF Nick Castellanos to the Texas Rangers for their top rated prospect SS/2B Jurikson Profar. After much thought and looking at team depth for both squads this is the opinions I formed on it. Enjoy!

Nick Castellanos Logistics:

   Nick Castellanos is a natural 3^rd Baseman. The Tigers clearly have that position log jammed by Miguel Cabrera who won’t be going anywhere until his career is over.  The current plan for Castellanos is to move him to left field and have him learn the position in Triple A. When he’s ready to field at a big league level, his bat is already there, he will be called up to Detroit to take over for Andy Dirks who will always be a solid ball player, but never a superstar.

     The club has significant outfield depth with Quentin Berry, who would make many teams’ opening day roster, another five tool prospect in Avisail Garcia, Torii Hunter’s heir apparent in right, and a younger clone of Andy Dirks at Double-A Erie waiting in the wings as well.  Castellanos is a luxury at this point with the current depth which makes trading him something that would be feasible for the franchise.

Jurickson Profar Logistics:

     The Tigers also have a strong need for middle infielders throughout their organization. They have not done a good job of acquiring and developing strong shortstop or second base prospects in many years.  This is where Jurickson Profar, the super prospect from the Texas Rangers comes into play.  He is a bona fide shortstop prospect, and like Castellanos, only 20-years-old.  The Rangers have no need for middle infielders in the distant future as Ian Kinsler is a stud second baseman still in the prime of his career, and Elvis Andrus is a top five major league shortstop as it stands today.  Similar to the Tigers’ logjam at third base, the Rangers don’t have a spot for Profar to play every day. 

     Additionally, the Rangers have an aging Adrian Beltre at third, and will need to find a replacement for him soon. Nick Castellanos could be the guy that arrives as Beltre departs and makes that a seamless transition at the third base position. It also would maximize the value of Castellanos as he would be able to play his natural defensive position.

Could a Trade Happen?

     From the level of pure logic and based on the logistics stated above it seems like this trade is beneficial to both parties and makes both clubs better both now and in the future. The problem with this, however, is that a simple swap of super prospects is completely unprecedented. Many clubs are attached to their “homegrown” prospects, and as such are very unwilling to part with a top prospect unless the trade returns a current major league star.  It’s a strange facet of baseball, but organizations take great pride in turning their own draft picks into superstars, and doing it with the player wearing their uniform.

     I firmly believe that this trade would be one that benefits both teams greatly. I also think that it is a trade that carries tons of risk and could cost a general manager their job.  With the idea of a trade like this being unprecedented, if one of these prospects flops while the other thrives, the general manager on the short end of the stick could lose his job. The risk involved with this trade would tend to make me believe it would never happen.  Both teams are stacked this year, and heavily favored to make the playoffs. They also seem to have staying power for the next 5-7 years as is.  With the teams both solidly placed amongst the top 8 in baseball, a risky move neither is necessary nor makes sense. 

     As a Tigers fan, I would love to see Profar take over the reins from Jhonny Peralta at shortstop. He would be a great potential leadoff hitter which would allow Austin Jackson to occupy the second or fifth spot in the lineup which he is more suited for.  It would improve the Tigers’ defense up the middle immensely and add some much needed speed to the lineup making this trade beneficial for the Tigers in both the short run and long run. 

     This trade in reality is a pipe dream.  There is no way Jon Daniels and Dave Dombrowski take this risk with the current position of their teams. This would be a completely unprecedented move based on players with less than 40 major league games played between them that could alter the future well being of each franchise.  As large market teams with high payrolls, there is no reason to resort to unprecedented moves in order to improve the team. This trade will never happen, but I think it would be awesome to see from a Tigers fan’s point of view.

     What are your thoughts on a move like this? Could you see it happening?  Would you like to see this happen? I would love it if you left your thoughts and ideas in the comments.