The Justin Verlander Extension Saga

     So Wednesday's supposed drop-dead date for Justin Verlander's contract extension negotiations has come and gone with the Tigers and Verlander not agreeing to a mega-extension.  JV has said on multiple occasions that he doesn't want to be distracted throughout the season with contract talks, and will not be willing to negotiate until next offseason after his last spring training start. Not being able to hammer this extension out will end up hurting the Tigers the most in the long run, as there is suddenly a strong possibility that Verlander will test the market after the 2014 season, and the chances that he ends his career in Detroit 50/50 at best. 

Verlander's Demands: 

     Everyone and their brother (including JV's) knows how competitive Verlander is, so certainly the Tigers and the rest of baseball understand that too. He wants to be the highest paid pitcher in baseball and he wants to be the first $200 million pitcher in baseball. Personally, I don't think both of those are possible as the only way he would reach the $200 million mark would be to spread it over 8 years, and then include some interest-free payment after the contract has expired (say $15 million over 5 years).  To be the highest paid pitcher in baseball he would probably have to accept around a 5 year extension, again at an annual average value of $28-30 million. This would be looking at a contract extension that could be something like 5 years/$140-150 million. Both of these are crazy contracts to fathom; however, when you're the best pitcher in the game, you call your shots.

Tigers Viewpoint:

     The worst case scenario is that Verlander plays out his contract, walks at the end of the 2014 season and signs a huge free-agent deal with the Red Sox, Yankees, or the Dodgers, who certainly aren't hurting for cash. The next worse-case scenario is that the Tigers wait until he's a free agent and then bring him back on an mega-deal. At the end of the 2014 season, Verlander will be 32-years-old and still a horse. At the end of the eight years though, he will be 40, and as a power pitcher, it's impossible to project where he will be at that age. There certainly isn't a strong track record for power pitchers at 40-years-old, save for Roger Clemens ('roids) and The Ryan Express.

     The bottom line here is this: The Tigers need to extend Justin Verlander as soon as possible. He is the most revered active athlete in Detroit let alone the game of baseball. He loves the city, and his first choice would be to stay in Detroit, but only at the right price. Letting him walk and not getting anything in return would be catastrophic to not just the team, but also its fan base and it would show at the box office.

Ideal Scenario:

     The first contract option Detroit should offer  is signing him immediately to an 8 year/$200 million contract extension. Verlander currently has two years and $40 million remaining on the 5 year /$80 million pact he signed in February 2010, so that extension would really look more like a 6 year/$160 million contract, which seems reasonable. First, they could simply raise his $20 million he's set to earn this season to $25 million, then raise 2014 to $30 million when Victor Martinez's contract ($14 million) will come off the books. All of the sudden, the Tigers are looking at 6 years and $145 million remaining on the extension, which seems manageable for both sides.

Verlander’s contract structure would look like:

2013: $25 million

2014: $30 million

2015: $30 million

2016: $30 million

2017: $25 million

2018: $20 million

2019: $20 million

2020: $20 million

    There are a few things this does here: First, it makes Verlander the highest paid pitcher in baseball history based on the dollar amount, which is his fantasy of $200 million. Second, it would make him the first $30 million/year pitcher in baseball history which will help satisfy his ego and competitive edge.

     For the Tigers it lets them use up two years of the current contract and its $40 million to ease the $200 million bill, and also allows the time to start ticking earlier. Verlander would be 38 by the end of the deal, and enough pitchers have been effective at that age to justify the contract.

     This contract extension would be a victory for both sides involved as the Tigers can take out contract insurance to help recover losses if JV gets seriously injured during the course of his extension. Another aspect of this is that Verlander and his competitiveness won't play baseball when he reaches the point of non-dominance. He will retire and go pursue a professional career in golf. You can take that to the bank. So, if he suffers a bad injury, or just loses it a la Kevin Brown at the turn of the millenium with the Yankees, he won't hang on like Brown did to collect his paycheck. He will retire. 

     There is no comparison for this deal as the two closest are Zack Grienke's recent deal with Los Angeles Dodgers who has injury history (unlike JV), and Felix Hernandez in Seattle who is three years younger than Verlander. 

     Bottom line is that this extension is very feasible if it gets done now. Signing the contract discussed above would ensure JV retires in Motown, and the organization isn’t compromised in the future by the deal.