2013 Season Predictions: Take 2

Here's my take on the 2013 season:

American League:

AL East - Tampa Bay Rays
AL Central - Detroit Tigers
AL West - Los Angeles Angels
Wildcards - Baltimore Orioles, Oakland A's

AL MVP - Evan Longoria
AL Cy Young - Justin Verlander
AL Rookie of the year - Trevor Bauer

AL champs: Detroit Tigers

National League:

NL East - Washington Nationals
NL Central - Cincinnati Reds
NL West - San Francisco Giants
Wildcards - Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers

NL MVP - Bryce Harper
NL Cy Young - Stephen Strasburg
NL Rookie of the year - Julio Teheran

NL Champs: Washington Nationals

World Series: Tigers over Nationals in 6.

I think the Tigers will finally show up in the World Series and bring the title back to Motown. It'll be a tough matchup. Both teams have excellent rotations with great lineups. The Nats have more speed and a stronger bullpen. The Tigers have more sluggers and a veteran savy team. The Nats have a lot of youth which may be their downfall. This Tigers team was there last year and they bolster an even stronger lineup. Verlander being the competitor he is, won't allow another bad showing. Paired with the added leadership of Torii Hunter and the bat of Victor Martinez to an already strong lineup, the Tigers should be able to hold off the Nationals.
Baseball is a long and crazy season and can't wait for it to start!

2013 Season Predictions

     Its opening day morning! Here I lay out my 2013 season predicions!

AL Predictions:

AL East Champion: Baltimore Orioles
AL Central Champion: Detroit Tigers
AL West Champion: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Wild Card Winners: Toronto Blue Jays/Texas Rangers

AL Most Valuable Player: Mike Trout
AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander
AL Rookie of the Year: Will Myers

AL Champion: Detroit Tigers

NL Predictions: 

NL East Champion: Washington Nationals
NL Central Champion: Cincinnati Reds
NL West Champion: San Francisco Giants
Wild Card Winners: Atlanta Braves/Los Angeles Dodgers

NL Most Valuable Player: Joey Votto
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
NL Rookie of the Year: Julio Teheran

NL Champion: Washington Nationals

World Series Predictions:
 Nationals over Tigers in 6 games

World Series MVP: Ryan Zimmerman

     I see the Nationals defeating the Tigers in the World Series this year.  Washington may be the only team with more talent stacked into their rotation than the Tigers. And their bullpen is lights out as well. With half the games not allowing for a designated hitter, that means the Tigers either lose Victor Martinez's bat, or Alex Avila's much better glove behind the dish. This is big advantage for the Nationals, and I think they prevail on the shoulders of their pitching staff and Ryan Zimmerman. Hopefully I'm wrong!

     Happy Opening Day folks, it's been a long winter, and meaningful baseball means Spring is officially here (even if the weather disagrees)! In order to get prepared for the Tigers opener tomorrow, check out my series preview.

Have a blessed Easter!

Series Preview: Minnesota

     It's two days before the Tigers open up their season in Minnesota. When they land in Minneapolis they will be greeted rudely by winter temperatures.  The high for Monday in Minneapolis is 34 degrees which neither teams hitters will appreciate very much.  The ball already doesn't travel very well at Target Field, and the cold heavy air won't help any either. After an off day on Tuesday the series will resume on Wednesday and conclude on Thursday under much better conditions with the temperatures projected to be in the 50's. 

Pitching Probables:

     Game 1: Justin Verlander-DET vs. Vance Worley-MIN
     Game 2: Anibal Sanchez-DET vs. Kevin Correa-MIN
     Game 3: Rick Porcello-DET vs. Mike Pelfrey-MIN

     The pitching match-ups in this series all heavily favor the Tigers. Verlander is the best pitcher in baseball, and its safe to assume he will do what he does. Vance Worley will start opening day for the Twins. He is the first of three Twin pitchers Detroit will face this week that have come from the National League during the off-season. As a result, the hitters don't know much about facing these guys which could play into the Twins' hands. Other than one time through the lineup, however, I can't see anything but a large advantage for the Tigers with the pitching this series. 

Lineups:

     There really is no contest here as far as strength of the lineups in this series. Minnesota is unanimously predicted to finish last in the AL Central for a reason. Minnesota will rely heavily on Joe Mauer, Justin Moreneau, and Josh Willingham for almost all of their offensive production as the rest of the lineup inspires little to no fear in opposing pitchers.  The Tigers, on the other hand, have the arguably the deepest and most intimidating lineup in the American League in a category that only the Anaheim Angels could possibly touch.  The Opening Day lineup will look like this:

1) Austin Jackson - 8
2) Torii Hunter - 9
3) Miguel Cabrera - 5
4) Prince Fielder - 3
5) Victor Martinez - DH
6) Andy Dirks - 7
7) Jhonny Peralta - 6
8) Alex Avila - 2
9) Omar Infante - 4

Justin Verlander - 1

     This lineup is a murderers row. The Tigers, on paper, have a large edge here as well. 

Bullpen:

     If I was pressed to guess, I would assume the member of the 'pen we're most likely to see this series in a save situation would be Phil Coke if there are multiple lefties due up in the ninth, or Al Alburquerque if its a right handed heavy part of the Twins order due up in the ninth. Either way, it will be interesting to see how the skipper uses his bullpen and closing committee throughout the year. Definitely something the watch closely as the season progresses.  

     On paper, this series is an easy sweep for the Tigers to start the season. In baseball, however, anything can happen and margins of error are typically small. That's why they play the games! Enjoy meaningful baseball this week folks! It's back!

Called up to the big leagues.

Tiger fans! My name is Justin Hawkes and I am excited to be joining this blog. I am a 24 year Hope College graduate with degrees in Accounting and Management.

I have been a Tigers fan my entire life and find myself constantly searching for news involving the Tigers. I'll be contributing any way I can with game/series previews, nightly recaps, trade rumors or roster management updates.

I'm not a writer per se, but hopefully my knowledge and love for the Tigers will be sufficient. It's going to be a busy Tigers season, hopefully going strong until the end of October! Go Tigers!!

PS Go BLUE!!

Verlander Extended through 2020

     Justin Verlander is one paid man. About 15 minutes after a very cryptic tweet, the Detroit Tigers announced that the team and Verlander have agreed to a 7 year contract extension worth $180 million. This makes him the highest paid pitcher in the history of the game as it is $5M more than the 7 year $175 million deal signed by Felix Hernandez this winter. The Tigers also gave him the $200 million mark by creating an 8^th year on a vesting option basis. That means that if he hits a certain performance marker he will get that eighth year guaranteed (EDIT: He must finish top 5 in 2019 Cy Young voting for year 8 to be guaranteed). This is a historical deal and ensures that Justin Verlander will be a Tiger for life. This is an appropriate time for all of you Tiger fans to pause for a moment and embrace how lucky you are to have a supportive owner in Mike Illitch. He really is committed to giving Detroit a ring whether it is during his lifetime or after.

What does this mean for the Tigers?

     As I suggested in my earlier post, the Tigers extended Justin Verlander with a large extension which will make him baseball’s higher pitcher.  The big difference is that they didn’t choose to inflate his strategy over the next two years to make the back end less costly.  I still maintain that he is worth more now, then he will be in 2019, but that’s a different discussion for a different day.

     As it stands under the parameters of this contract, Justin Verlander will make $40 million over the next two years. For years 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 he will make a combined $140 million for an annual average value of $28 million dollars a year. With this deal, unless the Illitch family decides they want to spend like the Yankees or Dodgers, it means that this year will likely be Max Scherzer’s last in Detroit.  There is no way I see that the Tigers can afford to keep him around when he hits free agency as he will command a deal probably around 17-20 million dollars per year. No team has that much to invest in their rotation. With that being probable, look for Detroit to deal Max after the 2013 season to maximize the return they can get for him via trade.  This also allows Drew Smyly to step in and fill his rotation slot. 

     I firmly believe that keeping Rick Porcello was a huge key to making the Justin Verlander extension possible and worth the dollar amount it cost the Tigers.  It made Max Scherzer leaving town a tough, but manageable pill to swallow. A rotation with Rick Porcello and Drew Smyly has depth when paired with Verlander, Anibal Sanchez, and Doug Fister. Trading Porcello, and then signing Verlander to the extension would have made the transition into the post-Scherzer era fairly rocky.

 Verlander’s Side:

     This is what Justin Verlander wanted all along.  He wanted a chance to be the first $200 million pitcher, and the Tigers gave him that. He also wanted to make sure he was the highest paid pitcher in history; the Tigers gave him that as well.  All along, I believe his seemingly contradictory comments were all a ploy by him and his agency to try and speed up extension talks. Justin Verlander wanted this deal and the peace of mind as soon as possible.  He never wanted to leave Detroit, and I’m not convinced he ever would, but he threw out the quote that he thinks free agency would be fun to put doubt in the front office’s mind to speed up the process.  It worked beautifully. He got what he wanted, the Tigers locked up maybe the greatest pitcher of the last 20 years for his career, and the fans are ecstatic.

     In the end, this deal is a win for both sides. It makes sense from the team’s perspective and from Verlander’s. Tigers fans, look forward and soak up the rest of Verlander’s career in your Tigers’ uniform.  It will be a fun ride, and every time he pitches, history might happen.  It’s a great day for baseball fans in Michigan. 

Verlander Extension Coming?

Justin Verlander has just sent out a recent tweet saying that "It's a great day! Big news coming later!" Based on circumstances and things I have gathered I am guessing we will see an extension to make him the highest paid pitcher in the game either today or tomorrow.
If and when that happens rest assured we'll have it covered right here and break down the deal and what it means for Detroit going forward. I also will compare it to my earlier proposition post from Wednesday. Stay Tuned!

Edit: Justin Verlander has agreed to a 5 year contract extension with a vesting option for a 6th year. Look for a comprehensive post on the details and what it means for both parties going forward tonight. Good day in Detroit!

A Super Prospect Swap?

     While thinking about Opening Day on this slow news day, I daydreamed up a simple, but meaningful, trade that seemed unprecedented, but logical. What I came up with was the Tigers sending their #1 rated prospect, 3B/OF Nick Castellanos to the Texas Rangers for their top rated prospect SS/2B Jurikson Profar. After much thought and looking at team depth for both squads this is the opinions I formed on it. Enjoy!

Nick Castellanos Logistics:

   Nick Castellanos is a natural 3^rd Baseman. The Tigers clearly have that position log jammed by Miguel Cabrera who won’t be going anywhere until his career is over.  The current plan for Castellanos is to move him to left field and have him learn the position in Triple A. When he’s ready to field at a big league level, his bat is already there, he will be called up to Detroit to take over for Andy Dirks who will always be a solid ball player, but never a superstar.

     The club has significant outfield depth with Quentin Berry, who would make many teams’ opening day roster, another five tool prospect in Avisail Garcia, Torii Hunter’s heir apparent in right, and a younger clone of Andy Dirks at Double-A Erie waiting in the wings as well.  Castellanos is a luxury at this point with the current depth which makes trading him something that would be feasible for the franchise.

Jurickson Profar Logistics:

     The Tigers also have a strong need for middle infielders throughout their organization. They have not done a good job of acquiring and developing strong shortstop or second base prospects in many years.  This is where Jurickson Profar, the super prospect from the Texas Rangers comes into play.  He is a bona fide shortstop prospect, and like Castellanos, only 20-years-old.  The Rangers have no need for middle infielders in the distant future as Ian Kinsler is a stud second baseman still in the prime of his career, and Elvis Andrus is a top five major league shortstop as it stands today.  Similar to the Tigers’ logjam at third base, the Rangers don’t have a spot for Profar to play every day. 

     Additionally, the Rangers have an aging Adrian Beltre at third, and will need to find a replacement for him soon. Nick Castellanos could be the guy that arrives as Beltre departs and makes that a seamless transition at the third base position. It also would maximize the value of Castellanos as he would be able to play his natural defensive position.

Could a Trade Happen?

     From the level of pure logic and based on the logistics stated above it seems like this trade is beneficial to both parties and makes both clubs better both now and in the future. The problem with this, however, is that a simple swap of super prospects is completely unprecedented. Many clubs are attached to their “homegrown” prospects, and as such are very unwilling to part with a top prospect unless the trade returns a current major league star.  It’s a strange facet of baseball, but organizations take great pride in turning their own draft picks into superstars, and doing it with the player wearing their uniform.

     I firmly believe that this trade would be one that benefits both teams greatly. I also think that it is a trade that carries tons of risk and could cost a general manager their job.  With the idea of a trade like this being unprecedented, if one of these prospects flops while the other thrives, the general manager on the short end of the stick could lose his job. The risk involved with this trade would tend to make me believe it would never happen.  Both teams are stacked this year, and heavily favored to make the playoffs. They also seem to have staying power for the next 5-7 years as is.  With the teams both solidly placed amongst the top 8 in baseball, a risky move neither is necessary nor makes sense. 

     As a Tigers fan, I would love to see Profar take over the reins from Jhonny Peralta at shortstop. He would be a great potential leadoff hitter which would allow Austin Jackson to occupy the second or fifth spot in the lineup which he is more suited for.  It would improve the Tigers’ defense up the middle immensely and add some much needed speed to the lineup making this trade beneficial for the Tigers in both the short run and long run. 

     This trade in reality is a pipe dream.  There is no way Jon Daniels and Dave Dombrowski take this risk with the current position of their teams. This would be a completely unprecedented move based on players with less than 40 major league games played between them that could alter the future well being of each franchise.  As large market teams with high payrolls, there is no reason to resort to unprecedented moves in order to improve the team. This trade will never happen, but I think it would be awesome to see from a Tigers fan’s point of view.

     What are your thoughts on a move like this? Could you see it happening?  Would you like to see this happen? I would love it if you left your thoughts and ideas in the comments.

Danny Worth optioned to Toledo, Opening Day Roster set.

Danny Worth has been optioned to Triple-A Toledo leaving the Tigers with 25 men left in camp who will make up their 25 man roster in Minnesota on April 1. This is a strong indicator that much to Dave Dombrowski's chagrin, the trade market for Ramon Santiago was non-existent. As a result, the Tigers used up Worth's last option, sending him to Toledo, and will head north with Santiago being the utility infielder off the bench going forward.

Help Wanted! Message from the Editor

     As I further think about how I want to build this blog, I've decided that along with large posts about big ticket news items surrounding the Tigers roster makeup and financial decisions and other opinion posts, I also would like to have series previews, daily links to news around Major League Baseball, and daily game recaps of the Tigers game.
   
     Obviously I can't do all of those things myself. Although I watch almost every Tiger Baseball game, I can't watch them all. I also have school and a real job that take up considerable time so being able to post all those things daily/regularly is difficult. I certainly have time to do the big posts and opinion posts that you've seen so far. My worry is that with the season kicking into full gear I won't be able to fulfill all the roles I'd like to be able to in order to have this blog reach it's full potential.


     My decision is that I would love to be able to bring another writer on board, maybe even two. Obviously, at this stage there would be no compensation other than something to put on a resume, or to fulfill your baseball appetite beyond normal fandom of the game. My requirements are that you have a strong baseball knowledge, the ability to be flexible with your role as we figure out what that is, quality writing ability, and most importantly the ability to be reasonably objective in your writing unless its an opinion piece.  I value stats and numbers highly so be willing to do some research as well. People reading this may consider this a job posting if you will

     If interested, you can message me on Facebook (Travis Bradstreet) or Twitter (@tbradstreet10). Also you can email me at travis.bradstreet@gmail.com. I will probably ask you to include a sample of your writing in the style you would contribute to the site.  Please don't hesitate to ask questions in the comments if you have any.

-Travis

Rondon, Marte to Toledo, One Cut Remaining

     In a wholly surprise move despite his rough spring, Bruce Rondon has been optioned to Toledo along with Luis Marte leaving the roster at 26 men left in big league camp.  Despite his struggles, almost everyone had written Rondon in as part of the bullpen. The Tigers were expected to work him slowly into the closer role by using him in 2 or 3 run save situations until he proved ready for a full-time closer role. Consider this humble blogger surprised by this move, but it may be the correct one.

Closer Situation:

     As it was expected, even if Rondon broke camp with the Tigers, the club will go with a closer by committee approach.  Rondon will just not be a part of that committee as was expected. His roster spot was given to Darin Downs who has had a great spring, a solid showing last year at the big league level, and is a Major League pitcher.  His presence also gives the Tigers a valuable second late inning lefty as Drew Smyly will occupy a long relief role on the club.  Downs' presence allows the Tigers some flexibility to use Phil Coke as part of the closing committee as they won't need to use him to get a lefty in the seventh or eighth inning. Also, the arms of Brayan Villareal, Al Alburquerque, and Joaquin Benoit all can be serviceable in a closing role. No manager wants to go closer by committee, but it looks like Jim Leyland will have to go that route at least to start the year.
 
     This leaves just one cut left to make before the opening day lineup is set. Look for that to come either today or tomorrow. That spot is between Ramon Santiago and Danny Worth to fulfill the utility infielder role off the bench. Clearly, general manager Dave Dombrowski is holding out to see if someone will trade for Santiago. If no one wants to make a deal for him, look for him to head north with the club.

March 27 Odds and Ends:

Kelly Officially Makes the Squad:

     Barring any unforeseen changes, according to Jim Leyland, Don Kelly has made the team. (Beck Tweet). Quentin Berry was reportedly, “heartbroken” over the decision, but Leyland told him they anticipate him having a large role with the club this year. That likely means, he’s the next man up if an outfielder goes down, specifically Austin Jackson. There will come a time this year when the Tigers need his speed badly off the bench, so we can plan on seeing him in a Tigers uniform at some point this year.

Santiago Trade Rumors:

     That also means that as long as Ramon Santiago is with the squad when they move north, Danny Worth will be headed to Toldeo to start the season. The Tigers would love to move Santiago because they feel that Danny Worth is ready to fill Razor’s roll adequately, and he is making significantly less than the $2.1 million they owe Santiago for the 2013 season. Also, there are many teams looking for veteran infield help, and Santiago would fit that bill nicely. If the Tigers can get a mid –level prospect, preferably a Starting Pitcher type for Santiago, look for him to pack his bags and Danny Worth to get the call to take his place. 

     These are the two moves/roster news items today that the Tigers made that dramatically influenced what the opening day 25-man roster will look like. Their spring training roster is now down to 28 men, and three cuts are necessary in order to get there. Look for the 25-man roster to be finalized on Thursday or early Friday as the squad will board their flight to Minnesota this weekend to open 2013.

The Justin Verlander Extension Saga

     So Wednesday's supposed drop-dead date for Justin Verlander's contract extension negotiations has come and gone with the Tigers and Verlander not agreeing to a mega-extension.  JV has said on multiple occasions that he doesn't want to be distracted throughout the season with contract talks, and will not be willing to negotiate until next offseason after his last spring training start. Not being able to hammer this extension out will end up hurting the Tigers the most in the long run, as there is suddenly a strong possibility that Verlander will test the market after the 2014 season, and the chances that he ends his career in Detroit 50/50 at best. 

Verlander's Demands: 

     Everyone and their brother (including JV's) knows how competitive Verlander is, so certainly the Tigers and the rest of baseball understand that too. He wants to be the highest paid pitcher in baseball and he wants to be the first $200 million pitcher in baseball. Personally, I don't think both of those are possible as the only way he would reach the $200 million mark would be to spread it over 8 years, and then include some interest-free payment after the contract has expired (say $15 million over 5 years).  To be the highest paid pitcher in baseball he would probably have to accept around a 5 year extension, again at an annual average value of $28-30 million. This would be looking at a contract extension that could be something like 5 years/$140-150 million. Both of these are crazy contracts to fathom; however, when you're the best pitcher in the game, you call your shots.

Tigers Viewpoint:

     The worst case scenario is that Verlander plays out his contract, walks at the end of the 2014 season and signs a huge free-agent deal with the Red Sox, Yankees, or the Dodgers, who certainly aren't hurting for cash. The next worse-case scenario is that the Tigers wait until he's a free agent and then bring him back on an mega-deal. At the end of the 2014 season, Verlander will be 32-years-old and still a horse. At the end of the eight years though, he will be 40, and as a power pitcher, it's impossible to project where he will be at that age. There certainly isn't a strong track record for power pitchers at 40-years-old, save for Roger Clemens ('roids) and The Ryan Express.

     The bottom line here is this: The Tigers need to extend Justin Verlander as soon as possible. He is the most revered active athlete in Detroit let alone the game of baseball. He loves the city, and his first choice would be to stay in Detroit, but only at the right price. Letting him walk and not getting anything in return would be catastrophic to not just the team, but also its fan base and it would show at the box office.

Ideal Scenario:

     The first contract option Detroit should offer  is signing him immediately to an 8 year/$200 million contract extension. Verlander currently has two years and $40 million remaining on the 5 year /$80 million pact he signed in February 2010, so that extension would really look more like a 6 year/$160 million contract, which seems reasonable. First, they could simply raise his $20 million he's set to earn this season to $25 million, then raise 2014 to $30 million when Victor Martinez's contract ($14 million) will come off the books. All of the sudden, the Tigers are looking at 6 years and $145 million remaining on the extension, which seems manageable for both sides.

Verlander’s contract structure would look like:

2013: $25 million

2014: $30 million

2015: $30 million

2016: $30 million

2017: $25 million

2018: $20 million

2019: $20 million

2020: $20 million

    There are a few things this does here: First, it makes Verlander the highest paid pitcher in baseball history based on the dollar amount, which is his fantasy of $200 million. Second, it would make him the first $30 million/year pitcher in baseball history which will help satisfy his ego and competitive edge.

     For the Tigers it lets them use up two years of the current contract and its $40 million to ease the $200 million bill, and also allows the time to start ticking earlier. Verlander would be 38 by the end of the deal, and enough pitchers have been effective at that age to justify the contract.

     This contract extension would be a victory for both sides involved as the Tigers can take out contract insurance to help recover losses if JV gets seriously injured during the course of his extension. Another aspect of this is that Verlander and his competitiveness won't play baseball when he reaches the point of non-dominance. He will retire and go pursue a professional career in golf. You can take that to the bank. So, if he suffers a bad injury, or just loses it a la Kevin Brown at the turn of the millenium with the Yankees, he won't hang on like Brown did to collect his paycheck. He will retire. 

     There is no comparison for this deal as the two closest are Zack Grienke's recent deal with Los Angeles Dodgers who has injury history (unlike JV), and Felix Hernandez in Seattle who is three years younger than Verlander. 

     Bottom line is that this extension is very feasible if it gets done now. Signing the contract discussed above would ensure JV retires in Motown, and the organization isn’t compromised in the future by the deal.

Housekeeping:

Today was another round of spring training cuts for the Tigers as they trimmed their roster to 30 men  and announced more roles that were won:

• Matt Tuiasosopo won the right handed hitting outfield gig with his two week long hot streak where he hit four home runs and hit over .400. He will spell Andy Dirks against some left handed pitchers. 
• Rick Porcello has won the fifth spot in the rotation, Drew Smyly becomes the primary long relief pitcher out of the bullpen.
• Their really are only two spots still open on the Tigers Opening Day roster, and it looks like its pretty clear who will win those roles. The open bullpen spot is coming down to Darrin Downs and Bruce Rondon. It looks pretty obvious that after his strong outing today, Rondon will take that spot.
•  The other OF/Util spot up for grabs almost certainly belongs to Don Kelly as he has raked this spring, and his competition, Quentin Berry has battled patella tendinitis all spring in his left knee and wasn't himself. Kelly also has mashed right handed pitching this spring and provided his typical steady glove
• Buster Olney tweets that the Tigers are informing clubs that Ramon Santiago is available. If a trade happens, look for Danny Worth to grab that vacated spot on the Opening Day roster.

Projected Opening Day Roster:

Pitchers: Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Doug Fister, Anibal Sanchez, Rick Porcello, Phil Coke, Drew Smyly, Joaquin Benoit, Al Alburquerque, Octavio Dotel, Brayan Villarreal, Bruce Rondon

Position Players: Alex Avila, Miguel Cabrera, Andy Dirks, Prince Fielder, Torii Hunter, Omar Infante, Austin Jackson, Don Kelly, Victor Martinez, Brayan Pena, Jhonny Peralta, Ramon Santiago, Matt Tuiasosopo

Opening Day is just around the corner! April 1 in Minnesota!

Porcello Wins final 5th Spot, Smyly to ‘Pen

     In a move that made a ton of sense for the Tigers today, and one that I was calling for since the World Series ended in embarrassing fashion last fall, the Tigers announced this afternoon that Rick Porcello will be the 5^th man in the rotation, and Drew Smyly will be a part of the bullpen as the team packs their bags and boards a flight for Minnesota this weekend to open the 2013 season.  This move makes sense on a multitude of levels and I think was common sense as soon as other clubs interested in Porcello via trade clearly didn’t view him as highly as Dave Dombrowski.

Porcello’s Value:

     A large problem in these trade rumors that surfaced almost immediately after the Tigers’ season ended last November was the value that many teams placed on Rick Porcello. Many GM’s around the league held the opinion that Rick Porcello has reached what he is going to be in the Major Leagues, that being a middle to back end of the rotation starting pitcher who relies on ground balls and walks his fair share of guys with limited strikeout potential.  This makes sense on the surface that GM’s widely hold this view of a guy who has started 120 games and thrown 691.2 innings over the course of four full seasons. With those credentials behind his name, it’s easy to forget that Kid Rick is still a kid.  He is 24 years old. Rick Porcello is 5 months younger than, get this, Stephen Strasburg, the young flame throwing phenom from the Washington Nationals.  What does that mean? Porcello is still learning to pitch, his body has either just finished fully maturing or is in the finishing stages which means mechanics still need to change as his body does. This spring, Porcello had incredible results of changing his delivery with pitching coach Jeff Jones in the offseason. He also ditched his slider for a curveball in hopes of throwing more strikes.  It worked. Porcello won the fifth spot in the rotation by striking out 21 and walking zero, I repeat, zero (!) batters in 24 innings of work. He had an ERA of 3.00 and attacked hitters challenging them on all areas of the plate instead of nibbling at the corners. He has had the spring of a 24 year old pitcher on the verge of a career breakthrough.  The value of a pitcher like this is widely considered to be a top prospect plus a major league ready role player. That market never materialized and thus Porcello is the 5^th man in the rotation.

Why Keep Porcello?

     There are also serious financial ramifications in keeping Rick Porcello along with the fact that there is no starting pitching depth in Detroit’s farm system after trading away Jacob Turner to the Marlins last year in the Sanchez/Infante deal and Andy Oliver to the Pirates in the offseason.  Max Scherzer will be a free agent after the 2014 season. He will certainly command a large salary if he retains his second half form from 2012.  Also, keep in mind that one Justin Verlander is a free agent after the 2014 season and the Tigers want to hammer out an extension with him and ensure he retires a lifelong Tiger. That is going to likely cost $200 million at about $25-30M/year. With Verlander’s extension being a priority, Prince Fielder’s albatross contract on the books through 2021, and an extension for Miguel Cabrera due within the next couple of years, it seems rather impossible to keep Scherzer as well.  By keeping Porcello, this allows the Tigers flexibility with Max Scherzer this offseason.  The best case scenario is that Porcello pitches well this year, and the Tigers are able to deal Max Scherzer, an ace in many rotations, to replenish the talent in the minor leagues they’ve lost with trades over the past few years.  This also paves the way for Drew Smyly to enter the rotation for good in 2014 and gives him one more year of experience and strengthening for a full workload.

Opinion:

     Porcello coming in and pitching the way he did made this a no brainer choice to include him in the rotation.  Drew Smyly had a fantastic spring as well and is a major league ready starter. Look for him to be a mainstay in the rotation in 2014. This year however, he will be in long relief and the next man up when one of the Tigers’ starters finds himself on the DL.  Porcello’s value is significantly higher than it is currently seen by GM’s around baseball as I expanded upon above.  He also has further value than that to the Tigers as he offers solid payroll flexibility for the years to come which is needed given the expanded payroll and extensions Dave Dombrowski is looking to complete in the next couple years.  Retaining his services and resisting the urge to trade him just because there are six men ready but only five rotation spots available will end up paying dividends not just in 2013, but also for years to come.  Porcello looks like a pitcher who will win 15 games this year and lower his ERA and WHIP that have inflated over the last couple years dramatically.  This was the correct call by Leyland, Dombrowski, and Co. and sets up the Tigers with arguably the best starting five in the American League. 

Welcome!

Hello readers and fellow baseball (hopefully Tigers) lovers! My name is Travis Bradstreet and I am a 23 year old Senior at Grand Valley State University. I am graduating in about a month here (April 2013) with degrees in Marketing and Accounting.  Why, you ask, then am I starting a blog about the Tigers as my college career comes to a close and the 2013 season is on the near horizon? The simple answer is that I love the Tigers, and I am fascinated by the financial and operations side of the game as well.  The long answer involves the short answer, plus my goals of going on in my education to get a Masters in Sports Management and one day work my way into the front office of a major league club. So, I beg that as we journey together through this season that you bear with me as this will be a learning experience for me both with writing a blog as well as about the finer details of running a baseball team. I will have strong opinions and not hesitate to voice them.  At times the fan in me will come through during the inevitable rough patches the season come and go. Through it all, however, I hope that you learn a little more about baseball and hopefully gain an understanding on why some of the player personnel decisions are being made for your Detroit Tigers as well as general day to day news accompanying the team. I'm excited to get this off the ground and would love feedback, both positive and negative every step of the way! I also encourage you to check out my personal favorite Tigers blog "Bless You Boys" at blessyouboys.com. They have an incredible group of writers over there and will give great insight throughout the season!

-Go Tigers!

-Travis

P.S. Also, as I have been doing a radio show from time to time, so those audio files may pop up on here as well.  Feel free to listen and comment on those as well!