Porcello Wins final 5th Spot, Smyly to ‘Pen

     In a move that made a ton of sense for the Tigers today, and one that I was calling for since the World Series ended in embarrassing fashion last fall, the Tigers announced this afternoon that Rick Porcello will be the 5^th man in the rotation, and Drew Smyly will be a part of the bullpen as the team packs their bags and boards a flight for Minnesota this weekend to open the 2013 season.  This move makes sense on a multitude of levels and I think was common sense as soon as other clubs interested in Porcello via trade clearly didn’t view him as highly as Dave Dombrowski.

Porcello’s Value:

     A large problem in these trade rumors that surfaced almost immediately after the Tigers’ season ended last November was the value that many teams placed on Rick Porcello. Many GM’s around the league held the opinion that Rick Porcello has reached what he is going to be in the Major Leagues, that being a middle to back end of the rotation starting pitcher who relies on ground balls and walks his fair share of guys with limited strikeout potential.  This makes sense on the surface that GM’s widely hold this view of a guy who has started 120 games and thrown 691.2 innings over the course of four full seasons. With those credentials behind his name, it’s easy to forget that Kid Rick is still a kid.  He is 24 years old. Rick Porcello is 5 months younger than, get this, Stephen Strasburg, the young flame throwing phenom from the Washington Nationals.  What does that mean? Porcello is still learning to pitch, his body has either just finished fully maturing or is in the finishing stages which means mechanics still need to change as his body does. This spring, Porcello had incredible results of changing his delivery with pitching coach Jeff Jones in the offseason. He also ditched his slider for a curveball in hopes of throwing more strikes.  It worked. Porcello won the fifth spot in the rotation by striking out 21 and walking zero, I repeat, zero (!) batters in 24 innings of work. He had an ERA of 3.00 and attacked hitters challenging them on all areas of the plate instead of nibbling at the corners. He has had the spring of a 24 year old pitcher on the verge of a career breakthrough.  The value of a pitcher like this is widely considered to be a top prospect plus a major league ready role player. That market never materialized and thus Porcello is the 5^th man in the rotation.

Why Keep Porcello?

     There are also serious financial ramifications in keeping Rick Porcello along with the fact that there is no starting pitching depth in Detroit’s farm system after trading away Jacob Turner to the Marlins last year in the Sanchez/Infante deal and Andy Oliver to the Pirates in the offseason.  Max Scherzer will be a free agent after the 2014 season. He will certainly command a large salary if he retains his second half form from 2012.  Also, keep in mind that one Justin Verlander is a free agent after the 2014 season and the Tigers want to hammer out an extension with him and ensure he retires a lifelong Tiger. That is going to likely cost $200 million at about $25-30M/year. With Verlander’s extension being a priority, Prince Fielder’s albatross contract on the books through 2021, and an extension for Miguel Cabrera due within the next couple of years, it seems rather impossible to keep Scherzer as well.  By keeping Porcello, this allows the Tigers flexibility with Max Scherzer this offseason.  The best case scenario is that Porcello pitches well this year, and the Tigers are able to deal Max Scherzer, an ace in many rotations, to replenish the talent in the minor leagues they’ve lost with trades over the past few years.  This also paves the way for Drew Smyly to enter the rotation for good in 2014 and gives him one more year of experience and strengthening for a full workload.

Opinion:

     Porcello coming in and pitching the way he did made this a no brainer choice to include him in the rotation.  Drew Smyly had a fantastic spring as well and is a major league ready starter. Look for him to be a mainstay in the rotation in 2014. This year however, he will be in long relief and the next man up when one of the Tigers’ starters finds himself on the DL.  Porcello’s value is significantly higher than it is currently seen by GM’s around baseball as I expanded upon above.  He also has further value than that to the Tigers as he offers solid payroll flexibility for the years to come which is needed given the expanded payroll and extensions Dave Dombrowski is looking to complete in the next couple years.  Retaining his services and resisting the urge to trade him just because there are six men ready but only five rotation spots available will end up paying dividends not just in 2013, but also for years to come.  Porcello looks like a pitcher who will win 15 games this year and lower his ERA and WHIP that have inflated over the last couple years dramatically.  This was the correct call by Leyland, Dombrowski, and Co. and sets up the Tigers with arguably the best starting five in the American League.